“If you don’t respect risk, eventually they’ll carry you out.”
USD
EUR/USD
The Shared currency edged higher towards $1.0225 as investors brace for key monetary policy announcement from ECB while fears of economic recession and downbeat EU consumer confidence continues to weigh on the pair amid Italy's political crisis.
GBP/USD
The Cable struggled to breach key resistance of $1.2045 and retraced back to $1.2000 as stronger consumer inflation figures failed to impress the pair ahead of retail sales data due tomorrow.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen lost ground to 138.20 as the Bank of Japan matched market expectations by keeping the benchmark rate unchanged while the quarterly release of the BoJ outlook report cited inflation fears and weighed on the yen.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar pulled back from its high of $0.6930 amid fears of recession and inflation but reversed some of its losses this morning as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Phillip Lowe said that further interest rate hikes are needed in the near term.
USD/CAD
The Loonie gained to 1.2900 amid softer Canadian CPI report and sliding oil prices.
USD/ZAR
South African rand edged down to 17.15 after data showed inflation soaring to a 13-year high in June on the eve of an interest rate announcement from the central bank later during the day.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee slipped to 45.15 on central Bank intervention (Selling).
10:45 - BOJ - BoJ Press Conference
16:15 - EUR - ECB Deposit Rate Decision
16:30 - USD - Jobless Claim
16:45 - EUR - ECB Press Conference
Past
EUR like a Deer in the headlights.
Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.
Current
Euro has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002
Forecast
A dip to parity or below is in the cards.
1st target @ 0.9906 78.6% fibo retracement
2nd target @ 0.9127 88.6% Fibonacci retracement
Invalidation level @ 0.8221
Past
Double zig-zag upward correction W-X-Y
USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th July 22
Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018
Current
BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.
Future
Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection
Invalidation Level @ 39.25
Past
After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.
The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.
Future
However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week
The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.
Invalidation level @51.05!
