Confidence is not “I will profit on this trade.” Confidence is “I will be fine if I don’t profit from this trade.
USD
EUR/USD
The Shared currency rallied to $1.0278 as ECB unexpectedly raised its interest rate by 50bps versus expectations of 25bps but quickly retraced back to yesterday's low of $1.0200 as elevated political uncertainty in Italy weighed on the pair ahead of PMI data later during the day and market eyes for ECB President Lagarde comments.
GBP/USD
The Cable traded with a bearish bias towards $1.1957 as political anxiety and Brexit fears put an extra burden on the pair ahead of retail sales data.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen nosedived to 137.92 this morning as the Statistics Bureau of Japan released the Inflation data of 2.4% versus 2.5% in addition to Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki's statement that hiking rates could knock down economy's recovery signaling support for the Bank of Japan's stance to keep monetary stimulus despite a global tightening trend amid rising inflation.
USD/CAD
The Loonie extended its losses to 1.2887 amid a retracement in oil prices ahead of retail sales data.
USD/ZAR
South African rand slipped to 17.00 as the South African Reserve Bank raised its benchmark repo rate by more than expected 75 bps to 5.5% at its July meeting to contain the surging domestic inflation , while signaling further aggressive monetary tightening ahead.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee remained unchanged to 45.15 (selling).
12:00 - EUR - PMI - July
12:30 - GBP - PMI - July
16:30 - CAD - Retail Sales (MoM)(May)
Past
EUR like a Deer in the headlights.
Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.
Current
Euro has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002
Forecast
A dip to parity or below is in the cards.
1st target @ 0.9906 78.6% fibo retracement
2nd target @ 0.9127 88.6% Fibonacci retracement
Invalidation level @ 0.8221
Past
Double zig-zag upward correction W-X-Y
USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th July 22
Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018
Current
BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.
Future
Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection
Invalidation Level @ 39.25
Past
After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.
The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.
Future
However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week
The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.
Invalidation level @51.05!
