“In this business if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.”
USD
EUR/USD
The Shared currency printed the biggest daily gains to $1.1094 since 2016 on rising hopes of a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement. However, the pair remained mixed this morning towards $1.1050 ahead of today's key European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting.
GBP/USD
The Cable firmed at $1.3166 on profit-taking on long U.S dollar positions, especially the euro, dragging the pound higher.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen continued its downside trend for four consecutive days to 116.10 against the U.S dollar on Japanese importer demand for the greenback coupled with the risk-on mood on the markets.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar recovered from yesterday's low to trade at $0.7320 as investors argue that the recent spike in commodity prices combined with higher food prices together with rising inflation might prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to act.
USD/CAD
The Loonie bounced back to 1.2810 against the U.S dollar as global equity markets rallied after they were pressured by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the price of oil pulled back from a 14-year high.
USD/ZAR
South African rand extended gains to 15.04 boosted by higher commodity prices and in line with a bounce in most emerging market stocks.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee remained unchanged at 43.70 (Selling).
16:45 - EUR - ECB interest rate decision
17:30 - USD - Consumer Price Index and Jobless Claim
After bouncing back from key resistance level 0.6262 from the upside as per our last forecast (see below) , NZDCHF sworn down to 0.6144 but lacked sufficient selling pressure to continue its downtrend.
It appears that final wave Y of W-X-Y correction is quite complex and there might be 2 scenarios popping up in the near term.
Scenario 1 : we could have reached final wave ‘e’ before downtrend resumes. (As per Elliott wave principle a triangle can be formed as final wave C of wave Y of W-X-Y correction)
Key resistance level is wave ‘e’ of barrier triangle of wave C – 0.6259.
