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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 4 August 2020

The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.

Winston Churchill
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
South Africa's rand tumbled to its weakest in a month as concerns on the domestic economy compounded fears over a rise in global COVID-19 cases.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Shared currency rebounded to $1.1770 as political wrangled over a U.S. relief plan, and the gloomy U.S. economic outlook kept investors shy of the U.S dollar.

 

GBP/USD
The Cable recovered from an earlier set back of $1.3000 to $1.3080 after U.K. PM Boris Johnson's stimulus announcement for construction of homes and infrastructure worth £900m.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese Yen extended its losing streak against the U.S dollar to 106.10, ignoring upbeat Tokyo CPI reading in  Asian session this morning.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar trimmed losses to $0.7140 after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its monetary policy settings unadjusted for the third straight meeting, with the official cash rate maintained at a record low of 0.25% earlier today.

 

USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand tumbled to its weakest in a month at 17.20/dlr as concerns on the domestic economy compounded fears over a rise in global COVID-19 cases.

 

USD/MUR
The Mauritian rupee mounted by 10 cents to 40.10(Selling) in the domestic market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

18:00 - USD -  Factory Orders

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
14-Sep-2020
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
10-Sep-2020
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
06-Aug-2020
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
17-Sep-2020
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.25%
18-Mar-2020
04-Aug-2020
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
17-Sep-2020
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2020
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.2014
1.3309
108.47
17.65
R2
1.1961
1.3206
107.27
17.54
R1
1.1867
1.3151
106.60
17.40
PP
1.1814
1.3048
105.40
16.40
S1
1.1720
1.2992
104.73
16.32
S2
1.1667
1.2889
103.53
16.17
S3
1.1573
1.2834
102.86
16.00
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
Japanese Yen may flirt to 105.30/19/dlr, further underscoring what may appear to be a buoyant month.
Chart updated on 24.07.2020

After rallying from bottoming all time low at 101.20 to 111.71 in covid-fueled March period, dwarfing an expanding leading diagonal ((1)) in 5 waves, USD/JPY has ever since unfolded in a corrective double three combination pattern (W)-(X)-(Y) of wave ((2)).

 

From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, the pair may experience further decline to the choppy downside to complete countertrend wave (Y) because- An impulse usually retraces to at least wave (4) of previous smaller trend, that is 105.19.
- Wave (4) of wave ((1)) coincides with 61.8% Fibonnacii retracement of wave ((1)), i.e 105.19.
- 78.6% projection wave (W) through (X) targets level 105.30.
- In EW lexicon, a pullback to the previous wave (2) usually happen to a leading diagonal ((1)).
- Post-triangle thrust measurement of wave B of (Y) leads exactly to 105.20.
- USD/JPY is still trading within the bearish parellel trendlines.

 

Thus, hibernation of price action could be seen in the locality of 105.30/19.On the flipside, a violent recoil to revive bullish momentum at 109.84 of June 4th would nullify this set-up, warning that the potency of positioning-derived bearish signal may be ebbing.

 

USD/CAD - Early stage of a bullish run.
Chart posted on 24.07.2020

On the hourly Chart, The USD/CAD has found strong support again near $1.3350 region yesterday. The pair fell to as low as $1.3345 before bouncing off relentlessly to as high as $1.3444 this morning.

 

We feel that the USD/CAD could be in an early stage of a bullish run towards $1.4017 in the coming months.

 

On the downside, $1.3315 remains a strong baseline , while  a break below that level would open the door for further weakness on the USD/CAD near $1.3200.

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
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    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
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    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.