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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 1st April 2024

Without hard work, nothing grows but weeds. 

Gordon B. Hinckley
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
28 May 2024
  • AUD
  • 31.26
  • 0.6736
  • BWP
  • 3.47
  • 0.0749
  • CAD
  • 34.36
  • 1.3503
  • CNY
  • 6.49
  • 7.1455
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.7576
  • EUR
  • 50.73
  • 1.0934
  • HKD
  • 6.03
  • 7.6911
  • INR
  • 0.57
  • 81.8186
  • JPY
  • 29.96
  • 154.8499
  • KES
  • 35.52
  • 130.6348
  • NZD
  • 28.85
  • 0.6218
  • NOK
  • 4.52
  • 10.2547
  • SGD
  • 34.80
  • 1.3332
  • ZAR
  • 2.62
  • 17.7402
  • SEK
  • 4.45
  • 10.4370
  • CHF
  • 51.22
  • 1.1039
  • GBP
  • 59.60
  • 1.2845
  • USD
  • 46.40
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 12.83
  • 3.6152
The dollar-rupee edged lower in the wake of Bank of Mauritius intervention this morning.
Fundamental News

EURUSD
The Shared Currency ticked up to $1.0784 on downbeat U.S. Core PCE index data.

GBPUSD
The Pound Sterling is unfazed at $1.2627 as markets are closed for the Easter holidays.

USDJPY
The Japanese Yen meandered at  151.36 against the U.S. dollar, following a mix of Japan's Economic data released this morning.

AUDUSD
The Australian dollar inched up to $0.6518, underpinned by positive China Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers data.

USDCAD
The Canadian dollar rose to 1.3533 against the U.S. dollar ahead of the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey, which is due today.

USDZAR
South Africa's rand enhanced to 18.85 against the greenback amid the U.S. Dollar's weakness.

USDMUR
The dollar-rupee fell by 11 cents to 46.85 (selling) this morning after the Bank of Mauritius's intervention.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

17.45 USD     S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI data.

18.00 USD     ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
5.50%
20-Sep-2023
01-May-2024
European Central Bank
4.50%
26-Oct-2023
11-Apr-2024
Bank of England
5.25%
21-Sep-2023
09-May-2024
Bank of Japan
0.0%
19-Mar-2024
26-Apr-2024
Reserve Bank of Australia
4.35%
07-Nov-2023
18-May-2024
S.Africa Reserve Bank
8.25%
23-Nov-2023
27-Mar-2024
Reserve Bank of India
6.50%
04-Oct-2023
02-Apr-2024
Bank of Mauritius
4.50%
15-Jun-2023
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.0848
1.2678
151.84
19.06
R2
1.0827
1.2661
151.67
18.91
R1
1.0810
1.2643
151.51
18.80
PP
1.0798
1.2626
151.34
18.89
S1
1.0772
1.2608
151.18
18.69
S2
1.0751
1.2591
151.01
18.71
S3
1.0734
1.2573
150.85
18.64
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
EUR/USD Outlook- Likely to take a breather before a big jump forward
Chart updated on 08.05.2023

As expected, the EUR/USD  has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.

Elliott wave pattern

Daily Chart

A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023

 Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction

Forecast

Short term

 We expect a corrective setback  in wave C in the coming month

1st  target 1.1.0670  Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction

2nd Target 1.0530-  Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction

Long term

Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023

USD/MUR Outlook Bearish turn ahead !
Chart posted on 08.05.2023

News

The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.

The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.

Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart

Double zig-zag upward correction in wave  W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!

Bearish turn ahead!

Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)

Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023

Forecast-  USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023

 On the  weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March

Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in  December 2023

EUR/MUR- A continuation of the uptrend!
Chart posted on 08.05.2023

Forecast

 EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.

 From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.

However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023

GBP/USD feeling the pressure of a corrective pullback in the short term
Chart posted on 07.09.2023

The Pound Sterling is experiencing a lot of selling pressure against the U.S. dollar due to the ongoing risk aversion theme. The Bank of England's aggressive monetary policy tightening is also causing concern for the U.K. economy, as it may not pause the policy tightening spell in time.

Additionally, Britain's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently the highest among G7 economies, which may require more rate hikes in the future. However, UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has reassured the public that the administration is working to bring inflation down to almost 5% by year-end.

From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD is still trapped in a Triple Zig-Zag Correction on the Hourly Chart. This could potentially lead to the pound reaching new lows in the coming sessions/days.

The downside targets are as follows:

  1. Target 1 @ 1.2487
  2. Target 2 @1.2418
  3. Target 3 @ 1,2330

On the flip side, if the pound were to move back to $1.2641 and 1.2710, it would invalidate the bearish count!

USD/ZAR- Room for one leg to the upside by end of year
Chart posted on 04.10.2023

News
The Rand has experienced a 10.3% decrease against the U.S. dollar in Q3 of 2023. This is due to a less optimistic economic outlook, which has been impacted by the Eskom power supply issues in South Africa.

Technical Outlook
A Diagonal pattern in wave C of wave (Y) is still underway.

Looking at the Elliott wave pattern, the USD/ZAR Daily Chart reveals a Diagonal pattern in wave C of wave (Y) is still in progress. The overall pattern from January 2011 to October 2023 appears to be forming a Clear 5-wave motive
structure (Diagonal) in wave C of wave (Y).


Forecast
We anticipate the USD/ZAR to gradually increase to a maximum of 21.26 in the upcoming months before reversing in the first quarter of 2024.

1st target 19.92- high of May 2023

2nd Target 20.65- upper trendline connecting wave 1-3

3rd Target 21.26- Maximum length of Wave 5 of wave C

Markey update on Biz Week by Christie Ng
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.