“We should not give up and we should not allow the problem to defeat us "
USD
EUR/USD
The Single currency edged lower t0 $1.0864 pre-release of Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and U.S. Core Retail Sales data today.
GBP/USD
The Cable cascaded to $1.2491 following a rise in U.K. unemployment data to 46.7K above estimates of 31.2K.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen ticked lower to 135.98 ahead of U.S. debt ceiling concerns talks due today.
AUD/USD
The Aussie slipped to 0.6665 following worse than expected China Industrial Production data, ignoring hawkish bias of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes held this morning.
USD/CAD
The Loonie timidly progressed to 1.3481 despite sluggish oil prices ahead of much awaiting Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released this afternoon.
USD/ZAR
The South African rand firmed at 19.11 as South African officials swiftly rejected the U.S. claims and said it had not approved any arms shipment to Russia in December.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee is on the back foot at 45.90(Selling).
13.00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (MOM)
16.30 USD Core Retail sales
16.30 CAD Core CPI
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
