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USD
EUR/USD
The Single currency slipped to $1.0925 after the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose moderately to 0.2% for April, the smallest year-on-year rise since January 2021, offering further evidence that inflation pressures are easing.
GBP/USD
The Cable displayed a perpendicular drop to $1.2523 post an anticipated rise of 4.5% in interest rate by the Bank of England(BOE) on Thursday, while U.K Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained flat this morning.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen dropped to 134.54 as the market sentiment remains fragile over a global economic slowdown magnified by softer Chinese Inflation figures and a negative reading in US initial Jobless Claims yesterday.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dipped to $0.6695 despite Goldman Sachs unveiling hawkish hopes about the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) next move to a likely increase in inflation.
USD/CAD
The Loonie plummeted to 1.3487 on downbeat WTI crude oil prices.
USD/ZAR
The South African rand stretched its downside to 19.17 against the greenback, for the first time since April 2020, on deepening concerns about the country's economic outlook with the prolonged power crisis being worsened.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee inched up to 45.85(Selling).
16.30 USD Export Price Index (MOM) April.
16.30 USD Import Price (MOM) April
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
