“Don't watch the clock; do what it does. Keep going."
USD
EUR/USD
The Single currency pared some losses to $1.0973 after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers failed to break a deadlock on the debt ceiling crisis.
GBP/USD
The Cable is stuck in a mundane at $1.2621 ahead of the Bank of England(BOE) policy meeting tomorrow. Markets are predicting a 98% chance of a 25bps hike from the BOE to bring down the double-digit inflation.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen weakened to 135.33 though Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda announced to underpin consumption and Capex by preventing volatile market moves from hurting public confidence.
AUD/USD
The Aussie is unfazed at $0.6760 after the Australian government on Tuesday announced the first budget surplus in 15 years.
USD/CAD
The Loonie backed off from Monday's high of 1.3317 to 1.3391 versus the greenback on profit-taking as the yield on Canadian government debt slipped.
USD/ZAR
The risk-sensitive rand fell steeply by more than 1.6% to 18.64 against the greenback as anxiety built in, with global market attention firmly pinned on U.S. inflation figures due later in the day.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee oscillated at 45.70(Selling).
16.30 USD Core CPI (April)
16.30 USD CPI ( YOY)
18.30 Crude Oil Inventories
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
