Internet Banking
Click icon again to close

Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 5th August 2022

“There is a time to go long, a time to go short, and a time to go fishing.”

Jesse Livermore
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
05 Aug 2022
  • AUD
  • 31.77
  • 0.7028
  • BWP
  • 3.66
  • 0.0809
  • CAD
  • 35.41
  • 1.2766
  • CNY
  • 6.79
  • 6.6567
  • DKK
  • 6.32
  • 7.1550
  • EUR
  • 46.47
  • 1.0280
  • HKD
  • 5.85
  • 7.7289
  • INR
  • 0.58
  • 77.9316
  • JPY
  • 34.28
  • 131.8696
  • KES
  • 38.47
  • 117.5026
  • NZD
  • 28.70
  • 0.6350
  • NOK
  • 4.73
  • 9.5542
  • SGD
  • 33.21
  • 1.3609
  • ZAR
  • 2.79
  • 16.1893
  • SEK
  • 4.53
  • 9.9836
  • CHF
  • 47.58
  • 1.0527
  • GBP
  • 55.13
  • 1.2196
  • USD
  • 45.20
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 12.44
  • 3.6343
The pound nosedived to $1.2141 despite 50bp rate hike as statements pointed towards recession
Fundamental News

EUR/USD 
The Shared currency retraced back from $1.0250 to $1.0230 as downbeat retail sales and German Factory orders indicated a slowdown in Eurozone.

 

GBP/USD
The pound nosedived to $1.2141 after the Bank of England statements yesterday revealed the UK is projected to enter recession in Q4 2022, and the Gross domestic product could fall by 2.1%. On Thursday, the Bank of England matched market forecasts by announcing the biggest 50 bps rate hike to 1.75%.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen gained to 133.00 on risk aversion as News that China's missiles landed on Japan's exclusive economic zones raised market fears.

 

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar slipped to $0.6968 as the Reserve Bank of Australia downgraded its economic growth forecasts and revised up inflation predictions in its Monetary policy statement.

 

USD/CAD

The Loonie edged lower to 1.2870 as the US dollar rebounded ahead of Canada's jobs reports today, ignoring the corrective pullback in Canada's main export item WTI crude oil.

USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand remained sidelined at 16.63 ahead of US Non-farm payroll data due today.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee idled at 45.20 (selling).

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

16:30 - USD - Non Farm Payroll

16:30 - CAD -Unemployment Rate(Jul) 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
1.75%
04-May-2022
-
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
-
Bank of England
1.75%
01-Jan-0001
-
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
-
Reserve Bank of Australia
1.35%
01-Jan-0001
-
S.Africa Reserve Bank
5.25%
21-Jul-2022
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
-
Bank of Mauritius
2.25%
03-Jun-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.0188
1.2031
141.92
17.81
R2
1.0127
1.1964
140.65
17.13
R1
1.0074
1.1895
139.81
16.98
PP
1.0013
1.1828
138.54
15.74
S1
0.9960
1.1759
137.70
15.14
S2
0.9899
1.1692
136.43
14.41
S3
0.9846
1.1623
135.59
13.99
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
EUR/USD Outlook- looking bleak throughout Q3-Q4 2022
Chart updated on 05.07.2022

Past

EUR like a Deer in the headlights.

Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.

Current 

Euro  has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002

Forecast

A dip to parity or below is in the cards.

1st target @ 0.9906  78.6% fibo retracement

2nd target @  0.9127  88.6% Fibonacci retracement

Invalidation level @ 0.8221

USD/MUR Outlook One more leg higher before paring some of its gains in Q3-Q4 2022
Chart posted on 05.07.2022

Past

Double zig-zag  upward correction W-X-Y

USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th  July 22

Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018

Current

 BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.

 

Future

Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection

Invalidation Level @ 39.25

EUR/MUR- Bears in control in Q3-Q4 2022
Chart posted on 05.07.2022

Past

After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.

The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.

 

Future

However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week

The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.

Invalidation level @51.05!

 

Weekly Market Update by Reshma Rajwani Peerun on Radio One
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.