“Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.”
USD
EUR/USD
The Shared currency nursed losses to $1.0150 on Wednesday after its sharpest drop in two weeks as a cut in Russian gas supply sent energy prices soaring ahead of the upcoming winter in the eurozone. Market eyes for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting tonight.
GBP/USD
The Cable gained to $1.2052 despite lower average hourly Earnings and a slump in U.K. retail sales.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen lost ground to 137.00 on the expectation of an aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve tonight which would escalate the Fed-BoJ policy divergence. On the other side, Japan raised its economic view, signalling broader recovery but warned about the increasing risk of climbing raw material costs and supply constraints.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar dipped to $0.6936 as local inflation data proved not to be white-hot as the market had wagered on, lowering the chance of a more aggressive rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week.
USD/ZAR
South African rand nosedived to 16.87 versus the greenback as market fears of economic slowdown magnified after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut the global growth forecast again this year, from 3.6% in their April review to 2.9%.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee rose to 45.20 (selling) this morning.
22:00 - USD - FED Monetary Policy Staement
Past
EUR like a Deer in the headlights.
Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.
Current
Euro has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002
Forecast
A dip to parity or below is in the cards.
1st target @ 0.9906 78.6% fibo retracement
2nd target @ 0.9127 88.6% Fibonacci retracement
Invalidation level @ 0.8221
Past
Double zig-zag upward correction W-X-Y
USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th July 22
Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018
Current
BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.
Future
Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection
Invalidation Level @ 39.25
Past
After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.
The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.
Future
However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week
The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.
Invalidation level @51.05!
