“I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: 1. If you don’t bet, you can’t win. 2. If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.”
USD
EUR/USD
The Shared currency rallied to $1.0200 before losing traction back to $1.0140 this morning as the market remained pessimist on resurfacing concerns over global growth. The European Union (EU) and China will hold a high-level economic and trade dialogue amidst tensions over a number of issues including the war in Ukraine. Inflation data due today.
GBP/USD
The Cable slipped near $1.1930 ahead of UK employment data and Average Hourly Earnings data which is expected to improve by 10 basis points.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen gained further to 137.97 amid modest USD weakness while the BoJ is likely to keep its interest rates unchanged on Thursday.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar climbed higher to $ 0.6854 as Reserve Bank of Australia has released its July monetary policy minutes which indicated some hawkish guidance by RBA policymakers to fight against inflation.
USD/CAD
The Loonie edged higher to 1.2950 on elevated oil prices. Inflation and retail sales data would shed some light on Bank of Canada forward path after the jumbo hike of 100bs.
USD/ZAR
South African rand steadied against the dollar after the U.S. currency fell to a more than 1-week low as traders pared bets on how aggressively the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates next week.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee rose at 45.40 (Selling).
13:00 - EUR - HICP (MoM)(Jun)
Past
EUR like a Deer in the headlights.
Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.
Current
Euro has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002
Forecast
A dip to parity or below is in the cards.
1st target @ 0.9906 78.6% fibo retracement
2nd target @ 0.9127 88.6% Fibonacci retracement
Invalidation level @ 0.8221
Past
Double zig-zag upward correction W-X-Y
USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th July 22
Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018
Current
BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.
Future
Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection
Invalidation Level @ 39.25
Past
After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.
The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.
Future
However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week
The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.
Invalidation level @51.05!
