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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 14th September 2022

An investment in knowledge pays the best interest

Benjamin Franklin
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
18 Apr 2024
  • AUD
  • 30.55
  • 0.6504
  • BWP
  • 3.46
  • 0.0738
  • CAD
  • 34.43
  • 1.3642
  • CNY
  • 6.58
  • 7.1369
  • DKK
  • 6.82
  • 6.8835
  • EUR
  • 50.41
  • 1.0732
  • HKD
  • 6.09
  • 7.7142
  • INR
  • 0.57
  • 82.2069
  • JPY
  • 30.79
  • 152.5363
  • KES
  • 36.08
  • 130.1709
  • NZD
  • 28.05
  • 0.5972
  • NOK
  • 4.37
  • 10.7550
  • SGD
  • 34.90
  • 1.3459
  • ZAR
  • 2.55
  • 18.3894
  • SEK
  • 4.36
  • 10.7728
  • CHF
  • 51.95
  • 1.1061
  • GBP
  • 58.86
  • 1.2531
  • USD
  • 46.97
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 12.99
  • 3.6158
The U.S dollar surged across the board after upbeat U.S. inflation data.
Fundamental News

EURUSD
The Shared currency cascaded to $0.9993 as the German Economy Minister expressed concerns over the gloomy economic outlook for the country, with output expected to stagnate or even contract in the year's second half.

GBPUSD
The Cable slipped to $1.1518 following better than estimated U.S. Inflation data. Attention shifts to the U.K. Consumer Price Index data amid hawkish hopes from the Bank of England.

AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar plunged to $0.6731 undermined by a strong U.S. dollar. Market eyes Thursday's Australia jobs report and Friday's speech from the RBA Governor Philip Lowe.

USDJPY
The Japanese yen dropped  to143.75 against the greenback as Japan's Industrial Production, which measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities, came in lower than expected at 0.8%.

USDCAD
The loonie nosedived near 1.3180 against the greenback weighed down by defeatist oil prices, and headlines surrounding demand and supply fears from OPEC.

USDZAR
The South African Rand lost ground against the greenback to 17.41 as mining production in South Africa fell by 8.4%, adding to six months of consistent drop, underscoring the sobering fact that the industry is shrinking.

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee climbed by 10 cents to 44.55(Selling).

 

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
1.75%
04-May-2022
-
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
-
Bank of England
1.75%
01-Jan-0001
-
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
-
Reserve Bank of Australia
1.35%
01-Jan-0001
-
S.Africa Reserve Bank
5.25%
21-Jul-2022
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
-
Bank of Mauritius
2.25%
03-Jun-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.0334
1.1903
148.63
17.81
R2
1.0260
1.1820
146.65
17.13
R1
1.0114
1.1657
145.61
16.98
PP
1.0040
1.1574
143.63
15.74
S1
0.9894
1.1411
142.59
15.14
S2
0.9820
1.1328
140.61
14.41
S3
0.9674
1.1165
139.57
13.99
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
EUR/USD Outlook- looking bleak throughout Q3-Q4 2022
Chart updated on 05.07.2022

Past

EUR like a Deer in the headlights.

Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.

Current 

Euro  has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002

Forecast

A dip to parity or below is in the cards.

1st target @ 0.9906  78.6% fibo retracement

2nd target @  0.9127  88.6% Fibonacci retracement

Invalidation level @ 0.8221

USD/MUR Outlook One more leg higher before paring some of its gains in Q3-Q4 2022
Chart posted on 05.07.2022

Past

Double zig-zag  upward correction W-X-Y

USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th  July 22

Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018

Current

 BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.

 

Future

Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection

Invalidation Level @ 39.25

EUR/MUR- Bears in control in Q3-Q4 2022
Chart posted on 05.07.2022

Past

After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.

The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.

 

Future

However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week

The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.

Invalidation level @51.05!

 

Chart posted on 01.01.0001
Markey update on Biz Week by Christie Ng
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.