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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 8 July 2021

The Fundamental law of investing, is the uncertainty of the future

Peter Bernstein
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
20 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.22
  • 0.7295
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0914
  • CAD
  • 33.73
  • 1.2691
  • CNY
  • 6.71
  • 6.3788
  • DKK
  • 6.84
  • 6.2566
  • EUR
  • 50.31
  • 1.1755
  • HKD
  • 5.59
  • 7.6619
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6819
  • JPY
  • 39.24
  • 109.0796
  • KES
  • 39.39
  • 108.6531
  • NZD
  • 30.30
  • 0.7080
  • NOK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5866
  • SGD
  • 32.02
  • 1.3367
  • ZAR
  • 2.94
  • 14.5487
  • SEK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5976
  • CHF
  • 46.22
  • 1.0799
  • GBP
  • 58.88
  • 1.3757
  • USD
  • 42.80
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.78
  • 3.6323
The dollar-rupee rose by 5 cents to 43.35(selling) boosted by U.S dollar strength.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Single currency dropped to $1.1793 following investor sentiment in Germany, the euro zone's biggest economy, fell sharply in July, the ZEW economic research institute reported.

 

GBP/USD
The Cable slipped to $1.3785 after minutes of the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting confirmed the world's biggest central bank is moving toward tapering its asset purchases as soon as this year.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen fell to 110.34 against the U.S dollar after Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said that the government is set to declare a state of emergency for the Tokyo area through August 22 amid a new wave of infections.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar lost ground to $0.7461 following Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that the unemployment rate would need to fall further and hold in the low 4% levels to lift inflation, an outcome not expected until 2024.

 

USD/CAD
The Loonie trickled to 1.2522 per U.S dollar despite strong Canadian Ivey PMI Data.

 

USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand steadied at 14.34 against the dollar on hawkish Fed minutes.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee extended gains by 5cents to 43.35(selling) on the local market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

15:30 - EUR - ECB Monetary Policy Statement

16:30 - USD - Initial Jobless Claims

19:00 - USD - Crude Oil Inventories

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
28-Jul-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
22-Jul-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
05-Aug-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
16-Jul-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
06-Jul-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1879
1.3931
111.25
15.57
R2
1.1857
1.3887
111.03
14.29
R1
1.1825
1.3843
110.83
13.94
PP
1.1803
1.3799
110.61
13.50
S1
1.1771
1.3755
110.41
13.23
S2
1.1749
1.3711
110.19
12.71
S3
1.1717
1.3667
109.99
11.43
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly FX Market Analysis by Karishma Sewock Nobutsing on Radio One
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.