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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 29 June 2021

There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time.

Jesse Livermore
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
20 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.22
  • 0.7295
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0914
  • CAD
  • 33.73
  • 1.2691
  • CNY
  • 6.71
  • 6.3788
  • DKK
  • 6.84
  • 6.2566
  • EUR
  • 50.31
  • 1.1755
  • HKD
  • 5.59
  • 7.6619
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6819
  • JPY
  • 39.24
  • 109.0796
  • KES
  • 39.39
  • 108.6531
  • NZD
  • 30.30
  • 0.7080
  • NOK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5866
  • SGD
  • 32.02
  • 1.3367
  • ZAR
  • 2.94
  • 14.5487
  • SEK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5976
  • CHF
  • 46.22
  • 1.0799
  • GBP
  • 58.88
  • 1.3757
  • USD
  • 42.80
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.78
  • 3.6323
USD/MUR rocketed by 3.9% to 43.10(selling) in the wake of Bank of Mauritius' intervention yesterday.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The single currency slammed to $1.1913 on ECB policymaker Holzmann’s comments signalling no room for rate hikes amid weak inflation, as well as a long road to sum up the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme when the coronavirus emergency is over. Market awaits speech from ECB President Lagarde.

 

GBP/USD
Cable tumbled to $1.3870, hit by the no show from the Bank of England in its July monetary policy meeting. The central bank warned against “ premature tightening” in policy and adopted a wait-and-watch approach.

 

USD/JPY
Safe-haven Japanese yen spiked to 110.55 per dollar on cautious mood, as the more contagious Delta strain of the novel coronavirus spread in Asia and elsewhere, stoking fears of further lockdowns.

 

USD/CAD
Loonie weakened to 1.2340 against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, as oil prices fell, with attention to Canadian monthly GDP on Wednesday.


AUD/USD
Aussie cascaded to $0.7557 on concerns over renewed COVID-19 lockdowns across parts of the country.

 

USD/ZAR
South African rand hammered to 14.28 per dollar after President Ramaphosa announced tighter COVID-19 restrictions on Sunday for 14 days, saying the country's current containment measures were insufficient.

 

USD/MUR
The Mauritian rupee nosedived to 43.10(selling) per dollar, soured by Bank of Mauritius' intervention yesterday to sell U.S dollar on the local market.

 

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

17:40 - EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks

18:00 - USD - CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
16-Jun-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
10-Jun-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
24-Jun-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
18-Jun-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
01-Jun-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
20-May-2021
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1989
1.3994
111.39
15.57
R2
1.1967
1.3967
111.18
14.29
R1
1.1947
1.3925
110.91
13.94
PP
1.1925
1.3898
110.70
13.50
S1
1.1905
1.3856
110.43
13.23
S2
1.1883
1.3829
110.22
12.71
S3
1.1863
1.3788
109.95
11.43
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly FX Market Analysis by Karishma Sewock Nobutsing on Radio One
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.