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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 28 June 2021

If we let the natural big players and the tide carry us forward, we won't make any progress.

Wole Coaxum
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
Euro plunged to $1.1926 amid Germany travel ban.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Euro plunged from $1.1975 to $1.1926 amid German Chancellor Merkel pushed to ban British travellers due to the Delta plus variant’s fears.

 

GBP/USD
Sterling tumbled to $1.3893, following Matt Hancock’s resignation from the Health Minister’s post due to harsh criticism for not following the Covid guidelines, ex-Finance Ministry member Sajid Javid returns to the Tory team.

 

USD/JPY
Yen held firm at 110.65 per dollar as softer-than-expected inflation data last week has done little to soothe concerns about the Federal Reserve dialling down its monetary stimulus.

 

USD/CAD
Loonie sidelined at 1.2304 against the dollar, unaffected by a modest increase in crude oil prices.

 

AUD/USD
Aussie edged lower to $0.7587 after Australia tightened restrictions to stem the spread of the more potent Delta strain.

 

USD/ZAR
South African rand soared to 14.01 against the greenback in hopes that a dovish Fed would keep the flow of dollars into riskier markets.

 

USD/MUR
The Mauritian rupee inched lower by 5 cents to 41.50(Selling) per dollar on the domestic market.

 

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
16-Jun-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
10-Jun-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
24-Jun-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
18-Jun-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
01-Jun-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
20-May-2021
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
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Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.2014
1.3984
111.52
15.57
R2
1.1994
1.3960
111.25
14.29
R1
1.1965
1.3920
111.01
13.94
PP
1.1945
1.3896
110.75
13.50
S1
1.1916
1.3856
110.51
13.23
S2
1.1896
1.3831
110.25
12.71
S3
1.1867
1.3791
110.01
11.43
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
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    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
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    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
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    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.