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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 26 November 2021

I know where I am getting out before I get in.

Bruce Kovner
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Jan 2022
  • AUD
  • 31.66
  • 0.7245
  • BWP
  • 3.86
  • 0.0883
  • CAD
  • 35.08
  • 1.2457
  • CNY
  • 6.99
  • 6.2514
  • DKK
  • 6.75
  • 6.4717
  • EUR
  • 49.70
  • 1.1373
  • HKD
  • 5.70
  • 7.6639
  • INR
  • 0.60
  • 73.2675
  • JPY
  • 38.72
  • 112.8605
  • KES
  • 39.00
  • 112.0450
  • NZD
  • 29.61
  • 0.6776
  • NOK
  • 5.00
  • 8.7321
  • SGD
  • 32.85
  • 1.3302
  • ZAR
  • 2.95
  • 14.8073
  • SEK
  • 4.81
  • 9.0874
  • CHF
  • 48.16
  • 1.1020
  • GBP
  • 59.48
  • 1.3611
  • USD
  • 43.70
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 12.03
  • 3.6329
The safe-haven yen rallied to 114.73 per dollar as a new COVID-19 variant spooked investors.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The single currency hovered above $1.12 after minutes from the European Central Bank's October meeting showed most policymakers leaning toward the continued stimulus and a cautious approach to any policy changes.

 

GBP/USD
The pound sterling slipped to a new 11-month low of $1.33 on news that Britain was concerned by a newly identified coronavirus variant spreading in South Africa that might make vaccines less effective.

 

USD/JPY
The safe-haven yen rallied to 114.73 per dollar on a cautious mood after Britain raised the alarm over a newly identified coronavirus variant spreading in the African nation.

 

USD/CAD
The loonie tumbled to 1.2710 per dollar as oil prices slid more than 2% on Friday on concerns that a global supply surplus could swell in the first quarter following a U.S.-led coordinated release of crude reserves among major consumers.

 

AUD/USD
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar slammed to a three-month low of $0.71265, shrugging off a much-better-than-expected climb in retail sales.

 

USD/ZAR
The South African rand bogged down to 16.22 against the greenback as domestic producer inflation rose to 8.1% year on year in October, enlightening about price pressures in Africa's most industrialized economy.

 

USD/MUR
The local pair edged higher by 5 cents to 43.55 on the Mauritian forex market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

11:30  - EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00%-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
15-Dec-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
12-Dec-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
16-Dec-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
17-Dec-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
07-Dec-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
08-Dec-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1258
1.3397
115.68
16.13
R2
1.1244
1.3375
115.57
15.90
R1
1.1226
1.3349
115.47
15.78
PP
1.1212
1.3327
115.36
15.67
S1
1.1194
1.3301
115.25
15.43
S2
1.1180
1.3279
115.14
15.21
S3
1.1162
1.3253
115.04
14.85
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
The dollar Index extends its intense rebound near one year high
Chart updated on 30.09.2021

The dollar Index extends its intense rebound near the 94.00 threshold, clinching a new high for this year 2021 amid an earlier rate hike expectation and announcement of a nearing tapering asset purchase which clearly impacted the yield curves.

 

A tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank remains far in the future but ECB remains vigilant on its inflation figures yet to be released this Friday. This could give additional upward momentum on the USD in the near term and exerts additional selling pressure on the euro and the pound.

 

On the technical side, after a breach and close above the 100% retracement A-B-C (93.72 level) ,the greenback could easily approach the 113% level at 94.38 followed by 127% level – 94.98 level in the near term. Resistance at 96.47 (161.8%) remains key level to watch

GBPUSD riding wave C after completion of triangular retracement of wave B
Chart posted on 30.09.2021

1.3750 marked the completion of ‘wave e’ of the triangular retracement (wave B) of corrective move A-B-C  for GBPUSD and abruptly, we saw fresh sellers entering the market below the 1.3600 levels yesterday.

 

As per Elliott wave principle, GBPUSD is battling around 1.3515 levels and higher inflation, Brexit and Petroleum concerns could exert further pressure on the pound towards 1.32 levels towards completion of wave C.

 

A breach and close above 1.3750 nullify this downward pattern.

Weekly Technical analysis by Keshav Callychurn on Radio one
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  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
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    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.