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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 24 November 2021

I'm not better than the next trader, just quicker at admitting my mistakes and moving on to the next opportunity.

George Soros
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
08 Dec 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.27
  • 0.7201
  • BWP
  • 3.76
  • 0.0866
  • CAD
  • 34.64
  • 1.2534
  • CNY
  • 6.92
  • 6.2712
  • DKK
  • 6.69
  • 6.4865
  • EUR
  • 49.22
  • 1.1337
  • HKD
  • 5.66
  • 7.6739
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 74.2155
  • JPY
  • 38.61
  • 112.4612
  • KES
  • 39.01
  • 111.3049
  • NZD
  • 29.78
  • 0.6858
  • NOK
  • 4.92
  • 8.8277
  • SGD
  • 32.19
  • 1.3490
  • ZAR
  • 2.80
  • 15.5237
  • SEK
  • 4.84
  • 8.9661
  • CHF
  • 47.33
  • 1.0901
  • GBP
  • 57.81
  • 1.3315
  • USD
  • 43.42
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.95
  • 3.6328
The U.S dollar bolstered to a four-and-a-half-year high versus the Yen on increased expectations of a Fed rate hike.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The euro skidded above a 16-month trough at $1.1224 to $1.1243, supported by stronger-than-expected European business surveys. Fresh clues will be hinted at tonight's FOMC minutes.

 

GBP/USD
Sterling held above an 11-month low of $1.3344 on Tuesday after BoE’s Haskel and Bailey reiterated possible rate hikes and not a hard form of forward guidance, respectively.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen tumbled to a four-and-a-half-year low of 115.23 per dollar as the risk sentiment remained sour amid increased anxiety over the Fed’s rate hike outlook.

 

USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar mounted to 1.2690 against the dollar, as crude and Brent oil prices gained after President Joe Biden announced his administration’s plans to tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

 

AUD/USD

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar crashed to a seven-week low of $0.7205 after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that interest rates on this side of the ditch will not likely rise until 2024.

 

USD/ZAR
The South African rand hovered near 15.85 per dollar, shrugging off the leading South African business cycle indicator dipped in September, mainly due to a drop in prices of export commodities and fewer residential building plans were approved.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee inched up by 5 cents this morning to 43.50(selling) on the domestic market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

13:00 - EUR - German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov)

17:30 - USD - Core Durable Goods Order (MoM)(Oct)

17:30 - USD - GBP (QoQ)(Q3)

17:30 - USD - Initial Jobless Claims

19:30 - USD - New Home Sales

19:30 - USD - Crude Oil Inventories

23:00 - USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00 -0.25%
16-Mar-2020
15-Dec-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
12-Dec-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
16-Dec-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
17-Dec-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
07-Dec-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
08-Dec-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1324
1.3480
116.05
16.13
R2
1.1299
1.3445
115.60
15.90
R1
1.1275
1.3413
115.38
15.78
PP
1.1250
1.3378
114.93
15.67
S1
1.1226
1.3346
114.71
15.43
S2
1.1202
1.3311
114.26
15.21
S3
1.1177
1.3279
114.04
14.85
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
The dollar Index extends its intense rebound near one year high
Chart updated on 30.09.2021

The dollar Index extends its intense rebound near the 94.00 threshold, clinching a new high for this year 2021 amid an earlier rate hike expectation and announcement of a nearing tapering asset purchase which clearly impacted the yield curves.

 

A tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank remains far in the future but ECB remains vigilant on its inflation figures yet to be released this Friday. This could give additional upward momentum on the USD in the near term and exerts additional selling pressure on the euro and the pound.

 

On the technical side, after a breach and close above the 100% retracement A-B-C (93.72 level) ,the greenback could easily approach the 113% level at 94.38 followed by 127% level – 94.98 level in the near term. Resistance at 96.47 (161.8%) remains key level to watch

GBPUSD riding wave C after completion of triangular retracement of wave B
Chart posted on 30.09.2021

1.3750 marked the completion of ‘wave e’ of the triangular retracement (wave B) of corrective move A-B-C  for GBPUSD and abruptly, we saw fresh sellers entering the market below the 1.3600 levels yesterday.

 

As per Elliott wave principle, GBPUSD is battling around 1.3515 levels and higher inflation, Brexit and Petroleum concerns could exert further pressure on the pound towards 1.32 levels towards completion of wave C.

 

A breach and close above 1.3750 nullify this downward pattern.

Weekly update by Jolene Li Sing How on Radio one
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.