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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 24 June 2021

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DJ Khaled
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
20 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.22
  • 0.7295
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0914
  • CAD
  • 33.73
  • 1.2691
  • CNY
  • 6.71
  • 6.3788
  • DKK
  • 6.84
  • 6.2566
  • EUR
  • 50.31
  • 1.1755
  • HKD
  • 5.59
  • 7.6619
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6819
  • JPY
  • 39.24
  • 109.0796
  • KES
  • 39.39
  • 108.6531
  • NZD
  • 30.30
  • 0.7080
  • NOK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5866
  • SGD
  • 32.02
  • 1.3367
  • ZAR
  • 2.94
  • 14.5487
  • SEK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5976
  • CHF
  • 46.22
  • 1.0799
  • GBP
  • 58.88
  • 1.3757
  • USD
  • 42.80
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.78
  • 3.6323
U.S dollar bolstered across the board on hawkish comments from U.S Fed members on monetary policy.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The shared currency plummeted from $1.1970 to $1.1922, on comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Fed Governor Bowman that growth surging to an estimated 7% this year and inflation well above the Fed's 2% target, suggesting interest rates to rise in late 2022.

 

GBP/USD
Sterling faded to $1.3960 following a 41% jump in the Delta Plus Covid infections in Britain, coupled with British policymakers’ lack of readiness to alter the demands over the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol over fishing quotas.

 

USD/JPY
Yen nosedived to 111.11 per dollar as Japan's factory activity expanded at the slowest pace in four months in June. A sign that momentum in the world's third-largest economy was levelling out before Tokyo is set to host the Olympic Games next month.

 

USD/CAD
Loonie soared to 1.2250 against the greenback last night, tracking mounting Brent oil prices at $76 to its highest since late 2018, after data showed U.S. crude inventories declined as travel picks up.

 

AUD/USD
Aussie retreated from $0.76 to $0.7570 on risk aversion as China warned the US over its warships in the Taiwan Strait.

 

USD/ZAR
South African rand firmed at 14.13 on Wednesday as South Africa's headline inflation in May soared to a 30-month high of 5.2%, as expected but above the mid-point of the central bank's target range of 3% to 6%.


USD/MUR

Dollar-rupee stayed put at 41.45(selling) on the local market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

12:00 - EUR - German Ifo Business Climate

15:00 - GBP - BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

16:30 - USD - Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)(May)

16:30 - USD  - Initial Jobless Claims

16:30 - USD - GDP (QoQ)(Q1)

 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
16-Jun-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
10-Jun-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
24-Jun-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
18-Jun-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
01-Jun-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
20-May-2021
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.2019
1.4078
111.64
15.57
R2
1.1994
1.4040
111.37
14.29
R1
1.1960
1.4001
111.16
13.94
PP
1.1936
1.3963
110.89
13.50
S1
1.1902
1.3924
110.68
13.23
S2
1.1877
1.3924
110.42
12.71
S3
1.1843
1.3847
110.21
11.43
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly FX Market Analysis by Karishma Sewock Nobutsing on Radio One
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.