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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 23 June 2021

We want to perceive ourselves as winners but successful traders are always focusing on their losses

Peter Borish
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
23 Jun 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.54
  • 0.7608
  • BWP
  • 3.86
  • 0.0932
  • CAD
  • 33.92
  • 1.2219
  • CNY
  • 6.49
  • 6.3904
  • DKK
  • 6.75
  • 6.1451
  • EUR
  • 49.58
  • 1.1961
  • HKD
  • 5.43
  • 7.6365
  • INR
  • 0.57
  • 73.0816
  • JPY
  • 37.72
  • 109.8988
  • KES
  • 38.99
  • 106.3188
  • NZD
  • 29.29
  • 0.7067
  • NOK
  • 4.94
  • 8.3979
  • SGD
  • 31.15
  • 1.3307
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.0048
  • SEK
  • 4.94
  • 8.3873
  • CHF
  • 45.39
  • 1.0951
  • GBP
  • 57.92
  • 1.3973
  • USD
  • 41.45
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.42
  • 3.6310
The Single currency extended recovery to $1.1930 as Fed's Powell sticks to script before Congress.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Shared currency climbed to $1.1927 as the U.S. Federal Reserve, including Chairman Jerome Powell, sought to reassure markets that the tighter monetary policy hinted at in the Fed’s latest policy decision was still some way off.

 

GBP/USD
The Sterling gained to $1.3942 on positive vibes from Brexit chaos, U.K PMI data eyed.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen dropped to 110.81 versus the greenback, with Japan releasing both its manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index for June earlier today. The manufacturing PMI stood at a lower-than-expected 51.5.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar gained to $0.7541 after Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Luci Ellis backed easy money policy with eyes on employment, inflation.

 

USD/CAD
The Loonie rose to 1.2321 per U.S dollar ahead of Canadian Retail Sales and US PMI.

 

USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand ticked up to 14.25 against the U.S dollar on U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress.

 

USD/MUR
The local pair idled at 41.45(selling) today.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

11:30 - EUR - German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
12:30 - GBP - Manufacturing PMI
12:30 - GBP - Services PMI

12:30 - GBP - Composite PMI

16:30 - CAD - Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

18:00 -USD - New Home Sales (May)

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
16-Jun-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
10-Jun-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
24-Jun-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
18-Jun-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
01-Jun-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
20-May-2021
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.2041
1.4090
111.48
15.57
R2
1.1997
1.4027
111.14
14.29
R1
1.1969
1.3987
110.90
13.94
PP
1.1925
1.3924
110.56
13.50
S1
1.1897
1.3884
110.32
13.23
S2
1.1853
1.3821
109.98
12.71
S3
1.1825
1.3781
109.74
11.43
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly Technical analysis update by Allan Juste on Radio One
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.