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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 22 June 2021

The fundamental law of investing is the uncertainty of the future

Peter Bernstein
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
29 Jul 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.96
  • 0.7441
  • BWP
  • 3.92
  • 0.0914
  • CAD
  • 34.67
  • 1.2389
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3876
  • DKK
  • 6.95
  • 6.1823
  • EUR
  • 51.12
  • 1.1901
  • HKD
  • 5.61
  • 7.6513
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 73.1726
  • JPY
  • 39.42
  • 108.9545
  • KES
  • 40.09
  • 107.1466
  • NZD
  • 30.17
  • 0.7024
  • NOK
  • 4.98
  • 8.6294
  • SGD
  • 32.05
  • 1.3403
  • ZAR
  • 2.97
  • 14.4620
  • SEK
  • 5.06
  • 8.4834
  • CHF
  • 47.56
  • 1.1073
  • GBP
  • 60.03
  • 1.3976
  • USD
  • 42.95
  • 1.0000
The Shared currency trimmed losses to $1.1901 as investors await testimony from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Shared currency trimmed losses to $1.1901 as investors await testimony from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell after being caught off-guard by the central bank’s latest policy decision.

 

GBP/USD
The Cable surged to $1.3903 as the market looks forward to the re-opening of the U.K. economy on Jul. 19 as well as a Bank of England policy decision, to be handed down on Thursday.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen slipped to 110.42 versus the U.S dollar on the back of a slower vaccination rollout program and lockdown restriction kept the currency pressurized.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar meandered at $0.7508 on escalating tensions between Australia and China. As reported, Canberra has dragged Beijing to WTO, after latter slap tariffs on Australind wine imports.

 

USD/CAD
The Loonie dropped to 1.2386 per U.S dollar despite a modest uptick in oil prices.

 

USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand firmed at 14.29 as a rally in the dollar stalled following a surprise hawkish shift from the U.S. Federal Reserve last week.

 

USD/MUR
The local pair unbothered at 41.45(selling) today.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

18:00 - USD - Existing Home Sales (May)

22:00 - USD -  Fed Chair Powell Testifies 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
16-Jun-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
10-Jun-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
24-Jun-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
18-Jun-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
01-Jun-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
20-May-2021
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.2019
1.4136
111.17
15.57
R2
1.1969
1.4037
110.76
14.29
R1
1.1944
1.3985
110.54
13.94
PP
1.1896
1.3886
110.13
13.50
S1
1.1871
1.3834
109.91
13.23
S2
1.1823
1.3735
109.50
12.71
S3
1.1798
1.3683
109.28
11.43
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly Technical analysis update by Allan Juste on Radio One
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    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
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    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
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    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.