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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 21 June 2021

If you can learn to create a state of mind that is not affected by the market's behavior, the struggle will cease to exist

Mark Douglas
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
20 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.22
  • 0.7295
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0914
  • CAD
  • 33.73
  • 1.2691
  • CNY
  • 6.71
  • 6.3788
  • DKK
  • 6.84
  • 6.2566
  • EUR
  • 50.31
  • 1.1755
  • HKD
  • 5.59
  • 7.6619
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6819
  • JPY
  • 39.24
  • 109.0796
  • KES
  • 39.39
  • 108.6531
  • NZD
  • 30.30
  • 0.7080
  • NOK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5866
  • SGD
  • 32.02
  • 1.3367
  • ZAR
  • 2.94
  • 14.5487
  • SEK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5976
  • CHF
  • 46.22
  • 1.0799
  • GBP
  • 58.88
  • 1.3757
  • USD
  • 42.80
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.78
  • 3.6323
The Shared currency slipped multi-month low after Fed's hawkish tilt last week.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Shared currency extended losses to as low as $1.1845 on Friday after the U.S. Federal Reserve surprised markets last week by signalling it would raise interest rates and end emergency bond-buying sooner than expected.

 

GBP/USD
The Cable slipped to $1.3813 on Brexit deadlock and a spike in the UK’s cases concerning Delta variant of the covid, ahead of this week’s Bank of England meeting for fresh clues.

 

USD/JPY
The safe-haven yen held firm at 109.89 against the U.S dollar as the Fed's tilt hit risk asset prices.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar tumbled to $0.7505 as preliminary Aussie Retail Sales for May drops below 0.7% market consensus.

 

USD/CAD
The Loonie trickled to 1.2450 versus the U.S dollar in the absence of significant fundamental drivers and high-tier macroeconomic data releases.

 

USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand fell steeply to 14.33 against the greenback heading for a weekly loss of almost 4% after the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish message on monetary policy dented investors' appetite for riskier assets.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee surged by 10cents to 41.45(Selling), tracking the U.S dollar strength.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

16:30 - EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks

18:15 - EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
16-Jun-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
10-Jun-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
24-Jun-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
18-Jun-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
01-Jun-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
20-May-2021
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1984
1.4052
111.03
15.57
R2
1.1955
1.3998
110.75
14.29
R1
1.1907
1.3899
110.49
13.94
PP
1.1878
1.3845
110.21
13.50
S1
1.1830
1.3746
109.95
13.23
S2
1.1801
1.3692
109.67
12.71
S3
1.1753
1.3593
109.41
11.43
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly FX Market Analysis by Karishma Sewock Nobutsing on Radio One
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.