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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 20 July 2021

The fundamental law of investing is the uncertainty of the future

Peter Bernstein
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
20 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.22
  • 0.7295
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0914
  • CAD
  • 33.73
  • 1.2691
  • CNY
  • 6.71
  • 6.3788
  • DKK
  • 6.84
  • 6.2566
  • EUR
  • 50.31
  • 1.1755
  • HKD
  • 5.59
  • 7.6619
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6819
  • JPY
  • 39.24
  • 109.0796
  • KES
  • 39.39
  • 108.6531
  • NZD
  • 30.30
  • 0.7080
  • NOK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5866
  • SGD
  • 32.02
  • 1.3367
  • ZAR
  • 2.94
  • 14.5487
  • SEK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5976
  • CHF
  • 46.22
  • 1.0799
  • GBP
  • 58.88
  • 1.3757
  • USD
  • 42.80
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.78
  • 3.6323
The Canadian Dollar fell by most in 13 months on weaker commodity prices and rising risk aversion.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Shared currency dropped to $1.1780 as concerns about the rapid global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant drove investors to seek comfort in the U.S. dollar.

 

GBP/USD
The Cable dived to $1.366 after BOE policymakers, namely Katherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel, turned down the hopes of monetary policy tightening. The U.S. issues 'Do Not Travel' alert for the U.K. over covid concerns also added downward pressure on the Pound.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen gained 109.50 versus the greenback as rampant coronavirus Delta variant jitters spurred a flight to the safe-haven JPY.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar extended losses to $0.7326 as the latest minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed that the policymakers reiterated their rejection of the rate hike before 2024 while saying they will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainable with 2-3% target range. 

 

USD/CAD
The Lonnie touched its weakest intraday level since Feb.5 at 1.2807 per U.S dollar before recovering to 1.2769 on Monday, undermined by a fall in commodity price and a deepening of risk aversion over the highly contagious Delta variant worldwide.

 

USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand slipped to 14.57 against the U.S dollar as fears grew that a rampant coronavirus variant could upend the global economic recovery.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee idled at 43(selling) on the Mauritian market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

16:30 - USD - Building Permits (Jun)

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
28-Jul-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
22-Jul-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
05-Aug-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
16-Jul-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
06-Jul-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1888
1.1876
111.05
14.78
R2
1.1856
1.3827
110.57
14.65
R1
1.1828
1.3752
110.02
14.61
PP
1.1796
1.3703
109.54
14.51
S1
1.1768
1.3628
108.99
14.43
S2
1.1736
1.3579
108.51
14.30
S3
1.1708
1.3504
107.96
14.08
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly FX Market Analysis by Karishma Sewock Nobutsing on Radio One
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.