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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 2 July 2021

We do crazy things together and the make them normal.

Jeff Bezos
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
20 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.22
  • 0.7295
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0914
  • CAD
  • 33.73
  • 1.2691
  • CNY
  • 6.71
  • 6.3788
  • DKK
  • 6.84
  • 6.2566
  • EUR
  • 50.31
  • 1.1755
  • HKD
  • 5.59
  • 7.6619
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6819
  • JPY
  • 39.24
  • 109.0796
  • KES
  • 39.39
  • 108.6531
  • NZD
  • 30.30
  • 0.7080
  • NOK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5866
  • SGD
  • 32.02
  • 1.3367
  • ZAR
  • 2.94
  • 14.5487
  • SEK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5976
  • CHF
  • 46.22
  • 1.0799
  • GBP
  • 58.88
  • 1.3757
  • USD
  • 42.80
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.78
  • 3.6323
Overnight strive for the U.S dollar ahead of U.S Non-Farm payrolls later.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The single currency lost ground to $1.1837 for the first time since April 6, on comments from European Central Bank Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Weidmann that he is skeptical about tolerating inflation overshoot.

 

GBP/USD
Sterling plunged to $1.3770, on reports that UK Chancellor Sunak’s admission that his hope for the UK and EU to strike a deal on regulatory equivalence “has not happened”, with downward pressure haltered by British government’s plan to rollout third Covid booster dose.

 

USD/JPY

Yen hit a 15-month high of 111.64 against the dollar, following U.S. initial jobless claims tallied 64,000 in the week ending June 26, beating estimates.

 

USD/CAD
Loonie staged a decisive rebound at 1.2442 per greenback ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls data.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar, seen as a proxy for risk appetite, slid to $0.7464, hitting its lowest since Dec. 21, as Australia's major centers of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Darwin are all under lockdown.

 

USD/ZAR
Rand nosedived to 14.47 per dollar, on broad dollar strength, as increased vaccinations that have led to more robust economic activity have helped the U.S. recovery from the pandemic, prompting expectations the Fed could start exiting its ultra-easy policy.

 

USD/MUR
The local pair steadied at 43.20(selling) on the local market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

16:30 - USD - Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)

16:30 - EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
28-Jul-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
22-Jul-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
05-Aug-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
16-Jul-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
06-Jul-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
20-May-2021
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1924
1.3899
112.38
15.57
R2
1.1904
1.3867
112.01
14.29
R1
1.1877
1.3817
111.77
13.94
PP
1.1857
1.3785
111.40
13.50
S1
1.1830
1.3735
111.16
13.23
S2
1.1811
1.3703
110.78
12.71
S3
1.1784
1.3653
110.54
11.43
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly FX Market Analysis by Karishma Sewock Nobutsing on Radio One
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.