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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 19 July 2021

I believe in analysis and not forecasting

Nicolas Darvas
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
The Australian dollar fell at its lowest since December 2020 on coronavirus woes.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Shared currency ticked down to $1.1804 as COVID-19 cases continue to increase globally, making investors nervous about the global recovery.

 

GBP/USD
The Cable slipped to $1.3757 as the Covid delta variant exploded in the UK, and questions arose as to whether the lifting of lockdown rules in England is a good idea.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen edged higher at 109.93 against the U.S dollar after the Bank of Japan decided to maintain the status quo at the July monetary policy meeting and lowered its growth forecast for the current fiscal year.

 

AUD/USD
The riskier Australian dollar fell to its lowest level at $0.7374  since December 2020, on growing fears over the rapid spread of the Delta covid variant. Covid cases in  Australia jumped over the weekend, with Victoria announcing an extension to the lockdown, denting the sentiment around the higher-yielding Aussie.

 

USD/CAD
The Loonie dived to 1.2642 per U.S dollar, bearing the double whammy of the US dollar’s safe-haven demand and the oil price weakness.

 

USD/ZAR
South African rand gained to 14.45 against the greenback despite the continent's most industrialised economy has been hit by some of the worst violence in decades after the jailing of former President Jacob Zuma.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee stayed put at 43(selling) on the Mauritian market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

14:00 - GBP - MPC Member Haskel Speaks 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
28-Jul-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
22-Jul-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
05-Aug-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
16-Jul-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
06-Jul-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1851
1.3932
110.99
14.78
R2
1.1837
1.3897
100.66
14.65
R1
1.1821
1.3831
110.38
14.61
PP
1.1807
1.3796
110.05
14.51
S1
1.1791
1.3730
109.77
14.43
S2
1.1777
1.3695
109.44
14.30
S3
1.1761
1.3629
109.16
14.08
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
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    Head - Forex And Derivatives
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    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.