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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 16 July 2021

The more you praise and celebrate your life, the more there is in life to celebrate.

Oprah Winfrey
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
Sanguine look for the U.S dollar despite Fed Chair Powell's rejection of the monetary policy adjustment.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The common currency hammered to $1.1807 on upbeat U.S unemployment data, despite Fed Chair Powell's rejection of the monetary policy adjustment in the second-day testimony. A meeting between European Commission President von der Leyen and Irish Martin in Dublin is scheduled today to tackle NI protocol.

 

GBP/USD
Sterling dropped to $1.3820, failing to derive support on hawkish comments from BoE policymaker Michael Saunders that the central bank could decide to halt its bond-buying programme early due to an unexpectedly sharp rise in inflation.

 

USD/JPY
Yen loitered around 110 per dollar after BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged and downgrades FY 2021/22 economic forecasts. Attention shifts to Governor Kuroda’s comments at 10:30 for immediate direction.

 

USD/CAD
Loonie heads toward lowest since April at 1.2614 per dollar after BOC's Macklem's reluctance to increase borrowing costs, coupled with an ADP report that showed Canada lost 294,200 jobs in June.

 

AUD/USD
Aussie plummeted to $0.7410 on sour sentiment linked to Sino-American tussles, as Beijing rejects Sherman’s meeting while the US is ready to sanction China diplomats over Beijing’s crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong.

 

USD/ZAR
The South African rand fell to 14.53 per greenback amid lingering looting and riots pressuring local businesses.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee staggered at 43(selling) on the Mauritian market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

10:30 - JPY - BoJ Press Conference

13:00 - EUR - CPI (Jun)

16:30 - USD - Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Jun)

16:30 - USD - Retail Sales (MoM)(Jun)

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
28-Jul-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
22-Jul-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
05-Aug-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
16-Jul-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
06-Jul-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1898
1.3997
110.42
14.78
R2
1.1874
1.3942
110.26
14.65
R1
1.1844
1.3883
110.05
14.61
PP
1.1820
1.3844
109.88
14.51
S1
1.1789
1.3789
109.67
14.43
S2
1.1766
1.3750
109.50
14.30
S3
1.1735
1.3695
109.29
14.08
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.