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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 15 July 2021

When you have financial wellness, you have power. 

Bola Sokunbi
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
U.S dollar shedding on downbeat monetary policy comments from Fed Chair Powell.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The single currency surged to $1.1832 after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell told Congress the U.S. economy was "still a ways off" from levels the central bank wanted to see before tapering its monetary support. He reassured the market again that an inflation spike will be transitory.

 

GBP/USD
Sterling plummeted to $1.3840 on comments from BoE Governor Bailey to reject the rush to make decisions on raising interest rates despite news of rising inflation, contradicting the previous day’s comments from Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden.

 

USD/JPY
Yen soared to 109.85 on broad dollar weakness, waiting for Federal Reserve Chair to deliver his second of his semi-annual testimonies, this time to the Senate Banking Committee.

 

USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar tumbled to 1.2540 against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday despite the Bank of Canada reduced the scope of its government bond-buying program to a target of C$2 billion ($1.6 billion) from C$3 billion but held its key interest rates at 0.25%.

 

AUD/USD
Aussie edged lower to $0.7464 this morning as the local unemployment rate also dropped in June, coupled with disappointing China's annualized GDP figures for the second quarter of 2021 arrived at 7.9%.

 

USD/ZAR
Rand recovered from a three-month low at 14.78 to 14.48 per greenback, on a fragile dollar, despite President Ramaphosa having to deploy more troops to reinforce the army and the police on Wednesday, curbing looting and violence in the country.

 

USD/MUR
The local pair inched lower to 43(selling) driven by global dollar frailty.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

10:00 - GBP - Average Earnings Index + Bonus

10:00 - GBP - Claimant Count Change (Jun)

16:30 - USD - Initial Jobless Claims

16:30 - USD - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing

17:30 - USD - Fed Chair Powell Testifies

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
28-Jul-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
22-Jul-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
05-Aug-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
16-Jul-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
06-Jul-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1926
1.3991
111.23
14.78
R2
1.1882
1.3942
110.97
14.65
R1
1.1859
1.3901
110.47
14.61
PP
1.1816
1.3851
110.20
14.51
S1
1.1793
1.3811
109.71
14.43
S2
1.1749
1.3761
109.44
14.30
S3
1.1726
1.3720
108.95
14.08
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
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  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
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    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
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    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.