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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 12 July 2021

Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.

John Bogle
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
USD/MUR plummeted to 42.95(selling) following the intervention of the Bank of Mauritius.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD

The common currency popped to $1.1867 on Monday's news that the European Central Bank will change its guidance on the next policy steps at its next meeting to reflect its new strategy and show it is serious about reviving inflation.

 

GBP/USD
Sterling jostled to $1.3887, on softer USD, despite a fresh row of a tussle between the UK and EU as EU represented a new total bill of £40.8bn being rejected by Downing Street.

 

USD/JPY
Yen hovered above its recent low at 110.16 against the dollar on Monday, as fears about a slowdown in the global economic recovery appeared to have subsided for now.

 

USD/CAD
Loonie bolstered to 1.2464 against the greenback on Friday's report that the unemployment rate in Canada dropped to 7.8% in June vs 7.7% expected.

 

AUD/USD
Aussie surged to $0.7473 on risk sentiment after China cut banks' reserve requirement ratio across the board to underpin its economic recovery.

 

USD/ZAR
South African rand soared at 14.30 per greenback as strong exports of commodities and manufactured items have seen the country's trade balance average a surplus of 50 billion rands a month for 2021.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee plummeted by 40 cents to 42.95(selling) following the Bank of Mauritius' intervention to sell U.S dollars on the domestic market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

17:30 - USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
28-Jul-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
22-Jul-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
05-Aug-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
16-Jul-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
06-Jul-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1951
1.4107
110.97
15.57
R2
1.1916
1.4008
110.61
14.29
R1
1.1895
1.3955
110.37
13.94
PP
1.1860
1.3855
110.02
13.50
S1
1.1839
1.3802
109.72
13.23
S2
1.1804
1.3702
109.42
12.71
S3
1.1783
1.3649
109.18
11.43
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
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    Head - Forex And Derivatives
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    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.