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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 1 July 2021

When I wake up in the morning and go to sleep at night, I am grateful to be me.

Diane Von Furstenberg
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
U.S dollar extended gains against its peers on upbeat U.S ADP job report.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The common currency crunched to $1.1845, although EU inflation figures matched upbeat forecasts but remained well below the ECB’s target. All eyes are on German Retail Sales and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech for further confirmation of Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme tapering tomorrow.

 

GBP/USD
Sterling plunged to $1.3813 after UK Gross Domestic Product shrank by 6.1% in Q1 on a YoY basis, as demand and economic activity fell due to the tightening of COVID-19 restrictions.

 

USD/JPY
Yen slammed to 111.15 per dollar on Automatic Data Processing reports that private companies in the United States added 692,000 jobs in June.

 

USD/CAD
Loonie tread water around 1.2407 against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as data showed Canada's economy shrinking less than expected in April.

 

AUD/USD
Aussie cascaded $0.7484, after China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI misses estimates with 51.3 in June, coupled with China’s Xi firm commitment “To implement 'one country, two systems in Hong Kong and Macau.”

 

USD/ZAR
The South African rand firmed at 14.29 per dollar on Wednesday after data showed the country recorded a larger-than-expected trade surplus for May.

 

USD/MUR

This morning, the Rupee hammered by 10 cents to 43.20(selling) against the dollar on the domestic market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

11:55 - EUR - German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

12:30 - GBP - Manufacturing PMI(Jun)

16:30 - USD - Initial Jobless Claims

18:00 - USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

23:00 - GBP - BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
28-Jul-2021
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
22-Jul-2021
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
05-Aug-2021
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
16-Jul-2021
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.10%
03-Nov-2020
06-Jul-2021
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
20-May-2021
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2021
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1960
1.3945
112.05
15.57
R2
1.1934
1.3917
111.58
14.29
R1
1.1896
1.3877
111.35
13.94
PP
1.1871
1.3845
110.88
13.50
S1
1.1832
1.3805
110.64
13.23
S2
1.1807
1.3774
110.18
12.71
S3
1.1768
1.3733
109.94
11.43
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
USDJPY finally topped exactly in the 110.80-111.00 resistance zone before trimming most of its post Fed gains. What next?
Chart updated on 21.06.2021

“ Its not that I am so smart. Its just that I observe the market longer. Patience is key to success.”  - Anonymous

 

Policy statement from the US Federal Reserve certainly helped fuel a spike upwards in the USDJPY which topped exactly in the  110.80-111.00 resistance zone ( Based on our previous forecast on 28.05.21)  before trimming most of its post Fed gains.  What next?

 

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged today and held its negative interest rate firm while also holding steady to its quantitative easing program in contrast with the FED.  The special COVID program is also extended till March 2022. The lag in economic recovery has put institutions under stress , with BOJ responding that they will announce new loan measures in the near term.

 

 

The sudden burst of volatility and uncertainty will continue to prevail in the market in the coming sessions. The forex pair , hovering near critical values of  110.80-111.00, remains a key pivot in the near term. 110.80 marks a complete A-B-C corrections as per Elliott wave principle which coincides also with 100% Fibo Extension.  A strong break and close above these levels could signal medium term buying in the USD amid breach of stop losses.

 

Shorts in USDJPY  can be initiated in the region of 110.50-110.80 with a stop above 111 with targets towards 109 and 108 levels.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.