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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 30 June 2020

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Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
14 Jul 2020
  • AUD
  • 28.12
  • 0.6978
  • BWP
  • 3.52
  • 0.0874
  • CAD
  • 29.74
  • 1.3549
  • CNY
  • 5.78
  • 6.9734
  • DKK
  • 6.19
  • 6.5105
  • EUR
  • 45.82
  • 1.1369
  • HKD
  • 5.23
  • 7.7061
  • INR
  • 0.54
  • 74.6301
  • JPY
  • 37.81
  • 106.5931
  • KES
  • 37.96
  • 106.1545
  • NZD
  • 26.52
  • 0.6580
  • NOK
  • 4.30
  • 9.3762
  • SGD
  • 29.10
  • 1.3851
  • ZAR
  • 2.42
  • 16.6351
  • SEK
  • 4.42
  • 9.1082
  • CHF
  • 42.98
  • 1.0665
  • GBP
  • 50.69
  • 1.2579
  • USD
  • 40.30
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.04
  • 3.6495
Sterling plummeted to a low of $1.2250 on Monday on worries about Britain's government planned infrastructure program
Fundamental News

EUR/USD

The Single currency edged lower to $1.1217 from a high of $1.1287 yesterday despite upbeat June German inflation data, as investors positioned ahead of  quarter-end.

 

GBP/USD
Sterling plummeted to a low of $1.2250 on Monday on concerns about how Britain's government will pay for its planned infrastructure program following PM Johnson promised a "Rooseveltian" boost to public emergency spending and tax measures worth an estimated 133 billion pounds. 

 

USD/JPY
Japanese yen hammered to 107.87 per dollar on spurring fresh optimism on the U.S. economy, as pending home sales data showed that housing market activity had quickly recovered in May from a plunge triggered by the pandemic.

 

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar ebbed away from yesterday's low of $0.6839 to $0.6860 now after a survey showed China's factory activity expanded at a stronger pace in June, beating expectations of a slowdown from last month.

 

USD/ZAR
The South African rand percolated around 17.30 against the greenback despite South Africa reported 6,334 new cases on Sunday after 7,210 new cases the day before, among the steepest daily rises to date. First-quarter gross domestic product data will be released at 13:30.

 

USD/MUR

The pair steadied at 40.50(selling) on the local market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

10:00 - GBP - GDP (YoY) (Q1)

10:00 - GBP - GDP (QoQ)(Q1)

13:00 - EUR - CPI (YoY)(Jun)

16:30 - CAD - GDP (MoM)(Apr)

18:00 - USD - CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)

20:30 - USD - Fed Chair Powell Testifies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
10-Jun-2020
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
04-Jun-2020
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
18-Jun-2020
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
16-Jun-2020
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.25%
18-Mar-2020
02-Jun-2020
S.Africa Reserve Bank
4.25%
21-May-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
-
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1252
1.2513
108.81
17.98
R2
1.1320
1.2451
108.35
17.66
R1
1.1281
1.2375
107.96
17.51
PP
1.1249
1.2312
107.50
16.80
S1
1.1210
1.2237
107.12
16.58
S2
1.1178
1.2175
106.66
15.92
S3
1.1139
1.2099
106.27
14.98
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
Pound tilted to the downside near $1.2180 despite upbeat UK PMI data
Chart updated on 24.06.2020

On the hourly chart, in an Elliott wave perspective, the upward correction that started on 18th of May 2020 to 11th June high of $1.2815 appeared to be a wave B within the April-June 2020 irregular flat decline (a)-(b)-(c) . A flat is a sideways, three-wave corrective pattern labelled A-B-C. Wave A (1.2078-18th May) and Wave B are always corrective waves (3-wave decline), while wave C is always a motive wave (5 wave structure). Actually, Wave C seems to be underway with one or two legs to the downside, completing wave 2, while a bearish contracting Diagonal pattern looming ahead.

 

Technically, we expect the bearish scenario on the GBP/USD to find its first strong support near $1.2170 printed on 7th April 2020 , as the Wave principle holds that the limit of any market correction tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of previous fourth wave of lesser degree. However, a break below that level could open the door for further decline near $1.1888 (a 61.8% Fibonacci percentage of previous March-April 2020 impulsive rally).

 

On the other hand, a bullish move on the GBP/USD is expected to meet interim contention around $1.2694 and a breach of this area on a sustainable basis could open the door to a probable visit to the high of $1.2815 printed on 10th of June.

It may be time to get rid of your Swiss Franc!
Chart posted on 25.06.2020

From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, USD/CHF indicates a violent recoil higher in compelling impulse Wave (3) trajectory on a test of support marked by the confluence of a former counter-trend support at Wave (2) at 0.9372 of June 11th, percolating since late March 2020. As we have continued to highlight, the trend USD/CHF remains bullish overall.

 

Looking at the hourly chart, the pair may propel into Wave (3) targeting 1.0084, which represents 100% Fibonacci projection of impulsive Wave (1) through corrective Wave (2). Peeking through 0.9553 of Wave (1) would further validate the upside momentum. On the flipside, a set-back of recent low at 0.9418, then 0.9372 would render the count obsolete. If the pair fails to clear the latter, it could catalyse an aggressive decline.

Weekly Market Update on Radio One by Reshma Peerun Rajwani
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    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
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    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
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    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.