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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 30 July 2020

Understand that you and the people you manage will go through a process of personal evolution.

Ray Dalio
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
US dollar marked broad losses on the bearish Fed which kept its policy measures unchanged.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The common currency clawed back gains from a 22-month low of $1.1807 to $ 1.1760 after Federal Reserve kept interest rate unchanged and left the door open to further easing last night. German data is eyed at 7:55 GMT.

 

GBP/USD
The Sterling pierced to $1.3015 on news that Britain had signed a supply deal for up to 60 million doses of a possible COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline, before retreating to $1.2962 amid Brexit waters woes.



USD/JPY
The safe-haven yen hit a four-and-a-half-month high of 104.77 per dollar on Wednesday, as Sino-U.S. relations have deteriorated sharply over issues ranging from the pandemic to Beijing's territorial claims in the South China Sea, and its clampdown on Hong Kong.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie retreated from a fresh 15-month top at $0.7207 to $0.7160 following data out on Thursday underlined the damage already done to the housing market with approvals to build new homes falling 4.9% to an eight-year low.

 

USD/ZAR
The rand cascaded to 16.67 against the greenback despite local inflation for June was in-line with expectations, with price-growth at 2.2% year-on-year from 2.1% previously.

 

USD/MUR
The Mauritian rupee ratcheted down by 5 cents against the dollar to 40.10(selling) on the domestic market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

11:55 - EUR - German Unemployment Change (Jul)

12:00 - EUR - German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

16:30 - USD - Initial Jobless Claims

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
29-Jul-2020
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
10-Sep-2020
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
06-Aug-2020
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
17-Sep-2020
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.25%
18-Mar-2020
04-Aug-2020
S.Africa Reserve Bank
3.50%
23-Jul-2020
17-Sep-2020
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2020
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1920
1.3138
105.66
16.79
R2
1.1863
1.3076
105.45
16.58
R1
1.1827
1.3036
105.19
16.46
PP
1.1771
1.2974
104.98
16.40
S1
1.1734
1.2935
104.72
16.32
S2
1.1678
1.2873
104.51
16.17
S3
1.1642
1.2833
104.25
16.00
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
Japanese Yen may flirt to 105.30/19/dlr, further underscoring what may appear to be a buoyant month.
Chart updated on 24.07.2020

After rallying from bottoming all time low at 101.20 to 111.71 in covid-fueled March period, dwarfing an expanding leading diagonal ((1)) in 5 waves, USD/JPY has ever since unfolded in a corrective double three combination pattern (W)-(X)-(Y) of wave ((2)).

 

From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, the pair may experience further decline to the choppy downside to complete countertrend wave (Y) because- An impulse usually retraces to at least wave (4) of previous smaller trend, that is 105.19.
- Wave (4) of wave ((1)) coincides with 61.8% Fibonnacii retracement of wave ((1)), i.e 105.19.
- 78.6% projection wave (W) through (X) targets level 105.30.
- In EW lexicon, a pullback to the previous wave (2) usually happen to a leading diagonal ((1)).
- Post-triangle thrust measurement of wave B of (Y) leads exactly to 105.20.
- USD/JPY is still trading within the bearish parellel trendlines.

 

Thus, hibernation of price action could be seen in the locality of 105.30/19.On the flipside, a violent recoil to revive bullish momentum at 109.84 of June 4th would nullify this set-up, warning that the potency of positioning-derived bearish signal may be ebbing.

 

USD/CAD - Early stage of a bullish run.
Chart posted on 24.07.2020

On the hourly Chart, The USD/CAD has found strong support again near $1.3350 region yesterday. The pair fell to as low as $1.3345 before bouncing off relentlessly to as high as $1.3444 this morning.

 

We feel that the USD/CAD could be in an early stage of a bullish run towards $1.4017 in the coming months.

 

On the downside, $1.3315 remains a strong baseline , while  a break below that level would open the door for further weakness on the USD/CAD near $1.3200.

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
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  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
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    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.