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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 29 June 2020

By sharing experiences, we can exercise our power.

Christy Turlington Burns
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
U.S Dollar dithered on hopes of economic recovery and escalating worries about new caseloads of the virus.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The fiber surged to $1.1260 on news from ECB policy maker Villeroy de Galhau that the European Central Bank will need to keep monetary policy loose until its inflation target is clearly in sight. Eurozone confidence data due at 13:00 and German inflation figures at 16:00 may set the tone for the latest gauge of the region's economic health.

 

GBP/USD
The cable bounced off from a low of $1.2313 to $1.2382 as PM Johnson is expected to announce a major new infrastructure plan on Tuesday to "get Britain moving again".

 

USD/JPY
The Safe-Haven Japanese Yen mounted to 107.11 against the greenback on risk aversion, shrugging off Japan’s Retail Trade and Large Retailers’ Sales which fell considerably.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie reversed losses from a low of $0.6847 to $0.6880 following Australian PM Morrison upbeat interview on the reopening up of the state borders in the country, despite the alarming rise in the coronavirus outbreak in the no. 2 populous state of Victoria.

 

USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand slipped to 17.30 against the U.S. dollar as concerns about a surge in coronavirus cases globally continued to weigh on hopes of a swift economic recovery.

 

USD/MUR
On the domestic market, the dollar-rupee remains unfazed at 40.50(selling).

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

18:00 - USD - Pending Home Sales (MoM)(Jun)

 

 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
10-Jun-2020
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
04-Jun-2020
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
18-Jun-2020
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
16-Jun-2020
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.25%
18-Mar-2020
02-Jun-2020
S.Africa Reserve Bank
4.25%
21-May-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
-
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1284
1.2533
108.01
17.98
R2
1.1262
1.2485
107.69
17.66
R1
1.1240
1.2410
107.45
17.51
PP
1.1218
1.2362
107.12
16.80
S1
1.1196
1.2288
106.89
16.58
S2
1.1173
1.2240
106.56
15.92
S3
1.1152
1.2166
106.33
14.98
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
Pound tilted to the downside near $1.2180 despite upbeat UK PMI data
Chart updated on 24.06.2020

On the hourly chart, in an Elliott wave perspective, the upward correction that started on 18th of May 2020 to 11th June high of $1.2815 appeared to be a wave B within the April-June 2020 irregular flat decline (a)-(b)-(c) . A flat is a sideways, three-wave corrective pattern labelled A-B-C. Wave A (1.2078-18th May) and Wave B are always corrective waves (3-wave decline), while wave C is always a motive wave (5 wave structure). Actually, Wave C seems to be underway with one or two legs to the downside, completing wave 2, while a bearish contracting Diagonal pattern looming ahead.

 

Technically, we expect the bearish scenario on the GBP/USD to find its first strong support near $1.2170 printed on 7th April 2020 , as the Wave principle holds that the limit of any market correction tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of previous fourth wave of lesser degree. However, a break below that level could open the door for further decline near $1.1888 (a 61.8% Fibonacci percentage of previous March-April 2020 impulsive rally).

 

On the other hand, a bullish move on the GBP/USD is expected to meet interim contention around $1.2694 and a breach of this area on a sustainable basis could open the door to a probable visit to the high of $1.2815 printed on 10th of June.

It may be time to get rid of your Swiss Franc!
Chart posted on 25.06.2020

From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, USD/CHF indicates a violent recoil higher in compelling impulse Wave (3) trajectory on a test of support marked by the confluence of a former counter-trend support at Wave (2) at 0.9372 of June 11th, percolating since late March 2020. As we have continued to highlight, the trend USD/CHF remains bullish overall.

 

Looking at the hourly chart, the pair may propel into Wave (3) targeting 1.0084, which represents 100% Fibonacci projection of impulsive Wave (1) through corrective Wave (2). Peeking through 0.9553 of Wave (1) would further validate the upside momentum. On the flipside, a set-back of recent low at 0.9418, then 0.9372 would render the count obsolete. If the pair fails to clear the latter, it could catalyse an aggressive decline.

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
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    Head - Forex And Derivatives
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Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.