Life isn't a matter of milestones, but of moments
USD
EUR/USD
The Single currency recovered to $1.1220 after hitting a previous day low of $1.1190 ahead of ECB president Lagarde's speech.
GBP/USD
The Sterling slightly gained to $1.2432 as traders bought back into the currency following its recent run lower, although worries about a second wave of COVID-19 infections and negotiations over a Brexit deal kept the rebound in check.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar stayed put at $0.6890 despite Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison was out on the wires earlier today, trying to allay Covid-19 fears triggered by the recent rise in the number of cases in the state of Victoria.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen little changed at 107.10/dlr after the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that they can be cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery in the near future.
USD/ZAR
The South African rand recovered to 17.13/dlr following a budget from S.A's Finance Minister Tito Mboweni speech that forecast ballooning debt and a higher government deficit.
USD/MUR
The U.S unfazed at 40.50(selling) against the Rupee on the domestic market.
11:00 - EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
17:00 - MUR - Interest Rate Decision
On the hourly chart, in an Elliott wave perspective, the upward correction that started on 18th of May 2020 to 11th June high of $1.2815 appeared to be a wave B within the April-June 2020 irregular flat decline (a)-(b)-(c) . A flat is a sideways, three-wave corrective pattern labelled A-B-C. Wave A (1.2078-18th May) and Wave B are always corrective waves (3-wave decline), while wave C is always a motive wave (5 wave structure). Actually, Wave C seems to be underway with one or two legs to the downside, completing wave 2, while a bearish contracting Diagonal pattern looming ahead.
Technically, we expect the bearish scenario on the GBP/USD to find its first strong support near $1.2170 printed on 7th April 2020 , as the Wave principle holds that the limit of any market correction tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of previous fourth wave of lesser degree. However, a break below that level could open the door for further decline near $1.1888 (a 61.8% Fibonacci percentage of previous March-April 2020 impulsive rally).
On the other hand, a bullish move on the GBP/USD is expected to meet interim contention around $1.2694 and a breach of this area on a sustainable basis could open the door to a probable visit to the high of $1.2815 printed on 10th of June.
From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, USD/CHF indicates a violent recoil higher in compelling impulse Wave (3) trajectory on a test of support marked by the confluence of a former counter-trend support at Wave (2) at 0.9372 of June 11th, percolating since late March 2020. As we have continued to highlight, the trend USD/CHF remains bullish overall.
Looking at the hourly chart, the pair may propel into Wave (3) targeting 1.0084, which represents 100% Fibonacci projection of impulsive Wave (1) through corrective Wave (2). Peeking through 0.9553 of Wave (1) would further validate the upside momentum. On the flipside, a set-back of recent low at 0.9418, then 0.9372 would render the count obsolete. If the pair fails to clear the latter, it could catalyse an aggressive decline.
