Internet Banking
Click icon again to close

Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 25 June 2020

Dreams are a great test. Because a dream is going to test your resolve.

Steven Spielberg
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
The cable cascaded to $1.2412 as the U.S threatened to levy tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Germany.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The fiber lost altitude to $1.1238 on news from IMF that global output to shrink by 4.9%, compared with a 3.0% contraction predicted in April, while U.S moved to maintain pressure on the EU in a 16-year dispute over aircraft subsidies by flagging possible changes in tariffs on EU goods, as the date for a decision on reciprocal EU duties slipped to the autumn. Focus on ECB minutes at 3:30 pm.

 

GBP/USD
The Sterling cascaded to $1.2412 as the U.S threatened to levy tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Germany, shrugging off Brexit optimism.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen nosedived to 107.14 per dollar on reports from Governor Koike that the daily number of new coronavirus cases in Tokyo climbed to 55 on Wednesday the highest tally in 1-1/2 months after a cluster of infections was found at an unnamed office in the Japanese capital.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie plunged to a low of $0.6865 as the dollar gained on fears that rising coronavirus infections could develop into a second-wave outbreak that diminishes global economic recovery prospects, undermined hopes for a quick turnaround in the pandemic-hit economy and prompted traders to cuts bets on riskier currencies.

 

USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand dipped to 17.44 against the greenback after Finance Minister Mboweni announced a wider budget deficit and soaring debt in an emergency supplementary budget in condemn that treasury projected the budget deficit would widen to 14.6% of the gross domestic product in the 2020/21 fiscal year, from a shortfall of 6.8% of GDP seen in February.

 

USD/MUR
Dollar-rupee bolstered by 20 cents to 40.50(selling), tracking a bullish U.S dollar across the board.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

15:30 - EUR - ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

16:30 - USD - Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)(May)

16:30 - USD - GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

16:30 - USD - Initial Jobless Claims

 

 

 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
10-Jun-2020
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
04-Jun-2020
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
18-Jun-2020
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
16-Jun-2020
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.25%
18-Mar-2020
02-Jun-2020
S.Africa Reserve Bank
4.25%
21-May-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
-
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1379
1.2631
107.97
17.98
R2
1.1353
1.2587
107.52
17.66
R1
1.1302
1.2503
107.28
17.51
PP
1.1275
1.2459
106.86
16.80
S1
1.1224
1.2374
106.60
16.58
S2
1.1198
1.2330
106.15
15.92
S3
1.1147
1.2246
105.91
14.98
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
Pound tilted to the downside near $1.2180 despite upbeat UK PMI data
Chart updated on 24.06.2020

On the hourly chart, in an Elliott wave perspective, the upward correction that started on 18th of May 2020 to 11th June high of $1.2815 appeared to be a wave B within the April-June 2020 irregular flat decline (a)-(b)-(c) . A flat is a sideways, three-wave corrective pattern labelled A-B-C. Wave A (1.2078-18th May) and Wave B are always corrective waves (3-wave decline), while wave C is always a motive wave (5 wave structure). Actually, Wave C seems to be underway with one or two legs to the downside, completing wave 2, while a bearish contracting Diagonal pattern looming ahead.

 

Technically, we expect the bearish scenario on the GBP/USD to find its first strong support near $1.2170 printed on 7th April 2020 , as the Wave principle holds that the limit of any market correction tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of previous fourth wave of lesser degree. However, a break below that level could open the door for further decline near $1.1888 (a 61.8% Fibonacci percentage of previous March-April 2020 impulsive rally).

 

On the other hand, a bullish move on the GBP/USD is expected to meet interim contention around $1.2694 and a breach of this area on a sustainable basis could open the door to a probable visit to the high of $1.2815 printed on 10th of June.

It may be time to get rid of your Swiss Franc!
Chart posted on 25.06.2020

From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, USD/CHF indicates a violent recoil higher in compelling impulse Wave (3) trajectory on a test of support marked by the confluence of a former counter-trend support at Wave (2) at 0.9372 of June 11th, percolating since late March 2020. As we have continued to highlight, the trend USD/CHF remains bullish overall.

 

Looking at the hourly chart, the pair may propel into Wave (3) targeting 1.0084, which represents 100% Fibonacci projection of impulsive Wave (1) through corrective Wave (2). Peeking through 0.9553 of Wave (1) would further validate the upside momentum. On the flipside, a set-back of recent low at 0.9418, then 0.9372 would render the count obsolete. If the pair fails to clear the latter, it could catalyse an aggressive decline.

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.