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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 23 July 2020

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Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
The Single currency Climbed to Highest in Almost Two Years on EU Deal Enthusiasm
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Single currency rose to its highest since October 2018 at $1.1600 as the European Union’s agreement on stimulus spurred renewed demand for the region’s assets.

 

GBP/USD
The British pound steadied at $1.2740 on the growing concern that the Brexit transition period will end without a deal between Britain and the EU.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen meandered at 107.15 against the greenback as heightened Sino-U.S. tensions kept currency markets cautious.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie climbed to a 16-month peak at $0.7184 on Wednesday on positive risk sentiment but gave up ground slightly to $0.7157 this morning.

 

USD/ZAR
The South African rand hit a one-and-a-half month peak at 16.33/dlr on Wednesday, as risk appetite improved in the currency markets, shrugging off data showing a plunge in local retail sales because of the coronavirus lockdown.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee inched up by 5 cents to 40.40(selling) on the domestic market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

16:30 - USD - Initial Jobless Claims

17:00 - ZAR - Interest Rate Decision (Jul)

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
29-Jul-2020
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
10-Sep-2020
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
06-Aug-2020
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
17-Sep-2020
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.25%
18-Mar-2020
04-Aug-2020
S.Africa Reserve Bank
4.25%
21-May-2020
17-Sep-2020
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2020
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1687
1.2901
107.91
16.79
R2
1.1614
1.2834
107.64
16.58
R1
1.1600
1.2783
107.22
16.46
PP
1.1497
1.2717
106.95
16.40
S1
1.1453
1.2665
106.54
16.32
S2
1.1380
1.2599
106.27
16.17
S3
1.1336
1.2547
105.85
16.00
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
GBP/USD struggles into an extended sideways price action, at risk of falling further!
Chart updated on 14.07.2020

Double three combination- (W)-(X)-(Y)- targets to $1.2169 and $1.2115


From Mid-April 2020, the Pound appeared to be caught into a continuous range bound price movement of $1.2078 and $1.2815. Elliott called this type of extended sideways base pattern a double three combination of two corrective patterns. A combination is composed of simpler types of corrections pattern, including zig-zags, flats and triangles. The simple corrective pattern components are labeled W, Y and Z.

 

An inspection of the double three combination on the hourly chart suggests the following: Wave (w) from April 15th to May 15th form a flat correction, while the rise from $1.2078 to $1.2815 was wave (x).Wave (y) is still unfolding into a possible Zig-Zag correction. It is likely that two corrective waves( a and b) of the Zig-Zag may have been completed at this juncture and that the market is in the process of tracing out Wave c of wave(y).

 

In the short term, Wave c of wave (y) could bottom at $1.2169 (within the area of the fourth wave of a lesser degree). While $1.2115 could prove as good alternative support based on typical ratio analysis guideline( Wave c=a, Wave (y)=(w)).

 

On the other hand ,any upside reversal would depend upon a break of $1.2665/70 area comprising highs market on last Thursday and on Monday. A successful break at $1.2670 would open the door for June month top near $1.2815.

 

Japanese Yen may flirt to 105.30/19/dlr, further underscoring what may appear to be a buoyant month.
Chart posted on 15.07.2020

After rallying from bottoming all time low at 101.20 to 111.71 in covid-fueled March period, dwarfing an expanding leading diagonal ((1)) in 5 waves, USD/JPY has ever since unfolded in a corrective double three combination pattern (W)-(X)-(Y) of wave ((2)).

 

From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, the pair may experience further decline to the choppy downside to complete countertrend wave (Y) because


- An impulse usually retraces to at least wave (4) of previous smaller trend, that is 105.19.
- Wave (4) of wave ((1)) coincides with 61.8% Fibonnacii retracement of wave ((1)), i.e 105.19.
- 78.6% projection wave (W) through (X) targets level 105.30.
- In EW lexicon, a pullback to the previous wave (2) usually happen to a leading diagonal ((1)).
- USD/JPY is still trading within the bearish parellel trendlines.

 

Thus, hibernation of price action could be seen in the locality of 105.30/19.


On the flipside, a violent recoil to revive bullish momentum at 109.84 of June 4th would nullify this set-up, warning that the potency of positioning-derived bearish signal may be ebbing.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
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Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.