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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 17 July 2020

You can never cross the ocean until you have the courage to lose sight of the shore.

Christopher Columbus
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
20 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.22
  • 0.7295
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0914
  • CAD
  • 33.73
  • 1.2691
  • CNY
  • 6.71
  • 6.3788
  • DKK
  • 6.84
  • 6.2566
  • EUR
  • 50.31
  • 1.1755
  • HKD
  • 5.59
  • 7.6619
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6819
  • JPY
  • 39.24
  • 109.0796
  • KES
  • 39.39
  • 108.6531
  • NZD
  • 30.30
  • 0.7080
  • NOK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5866
  • SGD
  • 32.02
  • 1.3367
  • ZAR
  • 2.94
  • 14.5487
  • SEK
  • 4.98
  • 8.5976
  • CHF
  • 46.22
  • 1.0799
  • GBP
  • 58.88
  • 1.3757
  • USD
  • 42.80
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.78
  • 3.6323
The European Central Bank Kept Pandemic Stimulus Steady on Eve of EU Recovery Talks
Fundamental News

EUR/USD

The Shared Currency snapped a four-day winning streak to $1.1380 after the European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged. However, the single currency could be set for a rocky end to the week as the EU gets ready to discuss the €750 billion recovery plan as from today.

 

GBP/USD

The Cable dropped to $1.2562 despite U.K. employment figures flashed upbeat numbers.

 

USD/JPY

The Japanese Yen lost ground to 107.20/dlr, as worries that a resurgence in the coronavirus is starting to curb economic activity drew safe-haven flows into the U.S. currency.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar recovered to $0.6990 as market attention is fixated at the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes of its July policy meeting due out next Tuesday, followed by a speech by Governor Philip Lowe.

 

USD/ZAR

South Africa's rand weakened to 16.72 versus the U.S dollar, pausing a recent rally to one-month highs, as disappointing Chinese consumption data dampened investor hopes of a quick economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

USD/MUR

The dollar-rupee remained idle at 40.15(selling) on the local market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

13:00 - EUR - CPI (YoY) (Jun)

14:00 - GBP - BoE GoV Bailey Speaks

16:30 - USD - Building Permits (Jun)

 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
29-Jul-2020
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
10-Sep-2020
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
06-Aug-2020
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
22-Jul-2020
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.25%
18-Mar-2020
04-Aug-2020
S.Africa Reserve Bank
4.25%
21-May-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2020
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1514
1.2741
107.92
18.05
R2
1.1462
1.2696
107.61
17.68
R1
1.1431
1.2642
107.28
17.43
PP
1.1378
1.2597
106.97
17.00
S1
1.1347
1.2543
106.64
16.70
S2
1.1295
1.2498
106.33
16.58
S3
1.1264
1.244
106.00
16.46
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
GBP/USD struggles into an extended sideways price action, at risk of falling further!
Chart updated on 14.07.2020

Double three combination- (W)-(X)-(Y)- targets to $1.2169 and $1.2115


From Mid-April 2020, the Pound appeared to be caught into a continuous range bound price movement of $1.2078 and $1.2815. Elliott called this type of extended sideways base pattern a double three combination of two corrective patterns. A combination is composed of simpler types of corrections pattern, including zig-zags, flats and triangles. The simple corrective pattern components are labeled W, Y and Z.

 

An inspection of the double three combination on the hourly chart suggests the following: Wave (w) from April 15th to May 15th form a flat correction, while the rise from $1.2078 to $1.2815 was wave (x).Wave (y) is still unfolding into a possible Zig-Zag correction. It is likely that two corrective waves( a and b) of the Zig-Zag may have been completed at this juncture and that the market is in the process of tracing out Wave c of wave(y).

 

In the short term, Wave c of wave (y) could bottom at $1.2169 (within the area of the fourth wave of a lesser degree). While $1.2115 could prove as good alternative support based on typical ratio analysis guideline( Wave c=a, Wave (y)=(w)).

 

On the other hand ,any upside reversal would depend upon a break of $1.2665/70 area comprising highs market on last Thursday and on Monday. A successful break at $1.2670 would open the door for June month top near $1.2815.

 

Japanese Yen may flirt to 105.30/19/dlr, further underscoring what may appear to be a buoyant month.
Chart posted on 15.07.2020

After rallying from bottoming all time low at 101.20 to 111.71 in covid-fueled March period, dwarfing an expanding leading diagonal ((1)) in 5 waves, USD/JPY has ever since unfolded in a corrective double three combination pattern (W)-(X)-(Y) of wave ((2)).

 

From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, the pair may experience further decline to the choppy downside to complete countertrend wave (Y) because


- An impulse usually retraces to at least wave (4) of previous smaller trend, that is 105.19.
- Wave (4) of wave ((1)) coincides with 61.8% Fibonnacii retracement of wave ((1)), i.e 105.19.
- 78.6% projection wave (W) through (X) targets level 105.30.
- In EW lexicon, a pullback to the previous wave (2) usually happen to a leading diagonal ((1)).
- USD/JPY is still trading within the bearish parellel trendlines.

 

Thus, hibernation of price action could be seen in the locality of 105.30/19.


On the flipside, a violent recoil to revive bullish momentum at 109.84 of June 4th would nullify this set-up, warning that the potency of positioning-derived bearish signal may be ebbing.

 

Weekly FX Market Analysis by Karishma Sewock Nobutsing on Radio One
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    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
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    Head – Treasury Sales
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  • Karishma Sewock Nobutsing
    Senior Dealer - Treasury Sales
    (+230) 5943 9837
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.