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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 15 July 2020

It's my duty to lead, but it's also my responsibility to listen and follow. 

Steve Wyche
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Sep 2021
  • AUD
  • 31.55
  • 0.7362
  • BWP
  • 3.91
  • 0.0913
  • CAD
  • 34.11
  • 1.2564
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 6.3745
  • DKK
  • 6.87
  • 6.2409
  • EUR
  • 50.50
  • 1.1785
  • HKD
  • 5.60
  • 7.6580
  • INR
  • 0.59
  • 72.6590
  • JPY
  • 39.12
  • 109.5434
  • KES
  • 39.35
  • 108.8984
  • NZD
  • 30.55
  • 0.7130
  • NOK
  • 5.08
  • 8.4425
  • SGD
  • 32.10
  • 1.3351
  • ZAR
  • 2.96
  • 14.4639
  • SEK
  • 5.03
  • 8.5245
  • CHF
  • 46.66
  • 1.0889
  • GBP
  • 59.01
  • 1.3772
  • USD
  • 42.85
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 11.80
  • 3.6323
USD/MUR slashed by 15 cents to 40.15(selling), shackled by the central bank's intervention yesterday on the local market.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The common currency vaulted to a four-month high at $1.1422 on Wednesday on hopes European Union leaders may agree on stimulus and deepening fiscal integration to shield the economy from the pandemic.

 

GBP/USD
Sterling hammered to $1.2485 after UK gross domestic product rose by 1.8% in May after falling by a record 20.8% in April, a softer-than-expected print, then revisited highs at $1.2580 as UK annualized CPI beats estimates with 0.6% in June.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese Yen edged higher to 107.25 against the greenback after U.S.consumer prices rebounded 0.6% month-on-month, the most in nearly eight years, in June, easing worries about deflationary pressures from the economic downturn.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie tracked as a growth leveraged currency, peaked for blue skies above $0.7017 on news Moderna Inc's experimental vaccine for COVID-19 showed early progress, combined with Australia A$17 billion sales of a new Australian 2025 bond line which drew A$50.6 billion in bids.

 

USD/ZAR
The rand clung on to recent gains at 16.70 against the dollar as investors continued to see value in holding the high-yielding currency despite signs of a creaking economy and climbing COVID-19 cases.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee slashed by 15 cents this morning to 40.15(selling), shackled by the central bank's intervention yesterday on the local market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

10:00 - GBP - CPI (YoY)(Jun)

16:30 - CAD - Core CPI (MoM)(Jun)

18:00 - CAD - BoC Interest Rate Decision

18:30 - USD - Crude Oil Inventories

19:15 - CAD - BoC Press Conference

 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
0.00-0.25%
16-Mar-2020
29-Jul-2020
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
16-Jul-2020
Bank of England
0.10%
19-May-2020
06-Aug-2020
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
22-Jul-2020
Reserve Bank of Australia
0.25%
18-Mar-2020
04-Aug-2020
S.Africa Reserve Bank
4.25%
21-May-2020
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
06-Aug-2020
Bank of Mauritius
1.85%
16-Apr-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1514
1.2669
107.73
18.05
R2
1.1462
1.2616
107.58
17.68
R1
1.1431
1.2585
107.41
17.43
PP
1.1378
1.2533
107.26
17.00
S1
1.1347
1.2501
107.09
16.73
S2
1.1295
1.2449
106.95
16.58
S3
1.1264
1.2418
106.77
16.46
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
GBP/USD struggles into an extended sideways price action, at risk of falling further!
Chart updated on 14.07.2020

Double three combination- (W)-(X)-(Y)- targets to $1.2169 and $1.2115


From Mid-April 2020, the Pound appeared to be caught into a continuous range bound price movement of $1.2078 and $1.2815. Elliott called this type of extended sideways base pattern a double three combination of two corrective patterns. A combination is composed of simpler types of corrections pattern, including zig-zags, flats and triangles. The simple corrective pattern components are labeled W, Y and Z.

 

An inspection of the double three combination on the hourly chart suggests the following: Wave (w) from April 15th to May 15th form a flat correction, while the rise from $1.2078 to $1.2815 was wave (x).Wave (y) is still unfolding into a possible Zig-Zag correction. It is likely that two corrective waves( a and b) of the Zig-Zag may have been completed at this juncture and that the market is in the process of tracing out Wave c of wave(y).

 

In the short term, Wave c of wave (y) could bottom at $1.2169 (within the area of the fourth wave of a lesser degree). While $1.2115 could prove as good alternative support based on typical ratio analysis guideline( Wave c=a, Wave (y)=(w)).

 

On the other hand ,any upside reversal would depend upon a break of $1.2665/70 area comprising highs market on last Thursday and on Monday. A successful break at $1.2670 would open the door for June month top near $1.2815.

 

Japanese Yen may flirt to 105.30/19/dlr, further underscoring what may appear to be a buoyant month.
Chart posted on 15.07.2020

After rallying from bottoming all time low at 101.20 to 111.71 in covid-fueled March period, dwarfing an expanding leading diagonal ((1)) in 5 waves, USD/JPY has ever since unfolded in a corrective double three combination pattern (W)-(X)-(Y) of wave ((2)).

 

From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, the pair may experience further decline to the choppy downside to complete countertrend wave (Y) because


- An impulse usually retraces to at least wave (4) of previous smaller trend, that is 105.19.
- Wave (4) of wave ((1)) coincides with 61.8% Fibonnacii retracement of wave ((1)), i.e 105.19.
- 78.6% projection wave (W) through (X) targets level 105.30.
- In EW lexicon, a pullback to the previous wave (2) usually happen to a leading diagonal ((1)).
- USD/JPY is still trading within the bearish parellel trendlines.

 

Thus, hibernation of price action could be seen in the locality of 105.30/19.


On the flipside, a violent recoil to revive bullish momentum at 109.84 of June 4th would nullify this set-up, warning that the potency of positioning-derived bearish signal may be ebbing.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis on GBP by Aassan Deedarun on Radio One
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Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.