It's my duty to lead, but it's also my responsibility to listen and follow.
The common currency vaulted to a four-month high at $1.1422 on Wednesday on hopes European Union leaders may agree on stimulus and deepening fiscal integration to shield the economy from the pandemic.
Sterling hammered to $1.2485 after UK gross domestic product rose by 1.8% in May after falling by a record 20.8% in April, a softer-than-expected print, then revisited highs at $1.2580 as UK annualized CPI beats estimates with 0.6% in June.
The Japanese Yen edged higher to 107.25 against the greenback after U.S.consumer prices rebounded 0.6% month-on-month, the most in nearly eight years, in June, easing worries about deflationary pressures from the economic downturn.
The Aussie tracked as a growth leveraged currency, peaked for blue skies above $0.7017 on news Moderna Inc's experimental vaccine for COVID-19 showed early progress, combined with Australia A$17 billion sales of a new Australian 2025 bond line which drew A$50.6 billion in bids.
The rand clung on to recent gains at 16.70 against the dollar as investors continued to see value in holding the high-yielding currency despite signs of a creaking economy and climbing COVID-19 cases.
The dollar-rupee slashed by 15 cents this morning to 40.15(selling), shackled by the central bank's intervention yesterday on the local market.
10:00 - GBP - CPI (YoY)(Jun)
16:30 - CAD - Core CPI (MoM)(Jun)
18:00 - CAD - BoC Interest Rate Decision
18:30 - USD - Crude Oil Inventories
19:15 - CAD - BoC Press Conference
Double three combination- (W)-(X)-(Y)- targets to $1.2169 and $1.2115
From Mid-April 2020, the Pound appeared to be caught into a continuous range bound price movement of $1.2078 and $1.2815. Elliott called this type of extended sideways base pattern a double three combination of two corrective patterns. A combination is composed of simpler types of corrections pattern, including zig-zags, flats and triangles. The simple corrective pattern components are labeled W, Y and Z.
An inspection of the double three combination on the hourly chart suggests the following: Wave (w) from April 15th to May 15th form a flat correction, while the rise from $1.2078 to $1.2815 was wave (x).Wave (y) is still unfolding into a possible Zig-Zag correction. It is likely that two corrective waves( a and b) of the Zig-Zag may have been completed at this juncture and that the market is in the process of tracing out Wave c of wave(y).
In the short term, Wave c of wave (y) could bottom at $1.2169 (within the area of the fourth wave of a lesser degree). While $1.2115 could prove as good alternative support based on typical ratio analysis guideline( Wave c=a, Wave (y)=(w)).
On the other hand ,any upside reversal would depend upon a break of $1.2665/70 area comprising highs market on last Thursday and on Monday. A successful break at $1.2670 would open the door for June month top near $1.2815.
After rallying from bottoming all time low at 101.20 to 111.71 in covid-fueled March period, dwarfing an expanding leading diagonal ((1)) in 5 waves, USD/JPY has ever since unfolded in a corrective double three combination pattern (W)-(X)-(Y) of wave ((2)).
From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, the pair may experience further decline to the choppy downside to complete countertrend wave (Y) because
- An impulse usually retraces to at least wave (4) of previous smaller trend, that is 105.19.
- Wave (4) of wave ((1)) coincides with 61.8% Fibonnacii retracement of wave ((1)), i.e 105.19.
- 78.6% projection wave (W) through (X) targets level 105.30.
- In EW lexicon, a pullback to the previous wave (2) usually happen to a leading diagonal ((1)).
- USD/JPY is still trading within the bearish parellel trendlines.
Thus, hibernation of price action could be seen in the locality of 105.30/19.
On the flipside, a violent recoil to revive bullish momentum at 109.84 of June 4th would nullify this set-up, warning that the potency of positioning-derived bearish signal may be ebbing.