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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 30th August 2022

If you have the courage to begin, you have the courage to succeed.

Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
17 May 2024
  • AUD
  • 31.16
  • 0.6725
  • BWP
  • 3.49
  • 0.0753
  • CAD
  • 34.28
  • 1.3514
  • CNY
  • 6.50
  • 7.1265
  • DKK
  • 6.84
  • 6.7699
  • EUR
  • 50.55
  • 1.0911
  • HKD
  • 6.03
  • 7.6844
  • INR
  • 0.56
  • 82.1527
  • JPY
  • 30.08
  • 154.0364
  • KES
  • 36.00
  • 128.6876
  • NZD
  • 28.57
  • 0.6167
  • NOK
  • 4.41
  • 10.4990
  • SGD
  • 34.74
  • 1.3337
  • ZAR
  • 2.62
  • 17.6528
  • SEK
  • 4.38
  • 10.5846
  • CHF
  • 51.41
  • 1.1096
  • GBP
  • 58.93
  • 1.2719
  • USD
  • 46.33
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 12.81
  • 3.6156
The Shared currency losses capped on growing expectations for European Central Bank rate hikes.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Shared currency trimmed the previous day's losses to $1.0004 as pressure from the dollar eased, and the euro was boosted by growing expectations for European Central Bank rate hikes.

 

GBP/USD
The Cable modestly gained to $1.1704, although soaring electricity and energy prices are creating havoc for the Bank of England policymakers.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen sailed to 138.48 against the U.S dollar as data showed that Japan's unemployment rate remained steady through July despite rising economic headwinds.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar crawled to $0.6898 despite Australian building approvals data came in significantly worse than expected for June. Approvals plummeted by 17.2% in the month, compared to expectations of a 5% drop.

 

USD/CAD
The Loonie climbed to 1.3005 against the greenback on expectations that major oil producers could cut output to stall the recent fall in oil prices provided a lift to the black liquid.

 

USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand rose to 16.84 per U.S dollar after the dollar retreated from its latest 20-year high, as investors turned their focus to this week's U.S non-farm payrolls to gauge if U.S. interest rate hikes have been priced in around the world are justified.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee steadied at 44.65(Selling).

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

18:00 - USD - JOLTs Job Opening (Jul)

18:00 - USD - CB Consumer confidence

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
1.75%
04-May-2022
-
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
-
Bank of England
1.75%
01-Jan-0001
-
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
-
Reserve Bank of Australia
1.35%
01-Jan-0001
-
S.Africa Reserve Bank
5.25%
21-Jul-2022
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
-
Bank of Mauritius
2.25%
03-Jun-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.0162
1.1845
140.70
17.81
R2
1.0095
1.1795
139.85
17.13
R1
1.0047
1.1750
139.28
16.98
PP
0.9980
1.1700
138.43
15.74
S1
0.9932
1.1655
137.86
15.14
S2
0.9865
1.1605
137.04
14.41
S3
0.9817
1.1590
136.44
13.99
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
EUR/USD Outlook- looking bleak throughout Q3-Q4 2022
Chart updated on 05.07.2022

Past

EUR like a Deer in the headlights.

Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.

Current 

Euro  has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002

Forecast

A dip to parity or below is in the cards.

1st target @ 0.9906  78.6% fibo retracement

2nd target @  0.9127  88.6% Fibonacci retracement

Invalidation level @ 0.8221

USD/MUR Outlook One more leg higher before paring some of its gains in Q3-Q4 2022
Chart posted on 05.07.2022

Past

Double zig-zag  upward correction W-X-Y

USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th  July 22

Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018

Current

 BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.

 

Future

Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection

Invalidation Level @ 39.25

EUR/MUR- Bears in control in Q3-Q4 2022
Chart posted on 05.07.2022

Past

After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.

The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.

 

Future

However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week

The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.

Invalidation level @51.05!

 

Markey update on Biz Week by Christie Ng
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.