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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 12th July 2022

I don't think about financial success as the measurement of my success

Christie Hefner
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
20 May 2024
  • AUD
  • 31.29
  • 0.6765
  • BWP
  • 3.48
  • 0.0752
  • CAD
  • 34.28
  • 1.3494
  • CNY
  • 6.49
  • 7.1298
  • DKK
  • 6.85
  • 6.7581
  • EUR
  • 50.57
  • 1.0931
  • HKD
  • 6.02
  • 7.6834
  • INR
  • 0.56
  • 81.9464
  • JPY
  • 30.06
  • 153.9165
  • KES
  • 35.81
  • 129.1711
  • NZD
  • 28.61
  • 0.6185
  • NOK
  • 4.43
  • 10.4478
  • SGD
  • 34.75
  • 1.3311
  • ZAR
  • 2.63
  • 17.5910
  • SEK
  • 4.38
  • 10.5588
  • CHF
  • 51.21
  • 1.1069
  • GBP
  • 59.06
  • 1.2766
  • USD
  • 46.26
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 12.80
  • 3.6152
USD/MUR tumbled after Bank of Mauritius' intervention on the domestic Fx market.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Shared currency extended losses close to parity near $1.0006 amid concerns that an energy crisis could tip Europe into recession, while the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to aggressively tighten policy to curb inflation.

 

GBP/USD
The Cable slipped to a new 27-month low at  $1.1847 amid economic fears in the U.K. and ongoing political uncertainty as candidates battle to become the next conservative leaders, leaving the market in a state of flux that undermined the pound.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen perched at 137.37 per U.S dollar ahead of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to discuss ways to strengthen further Western sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar cascaded to $0.6722 on negative COVID-19 headlines in China, causing fresh pain for key Australian commodity exports, with iron ore sliding to its lowest for the year.

 

USD/CAD
The Loonie faded to 1.3027 per U.S dollar on a broad risk-off mood coupled with softer oil prices.

 

USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand weakened to 17.16 as the safe-haven dollar strengthened amid global growth fears.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee tumbled to 45.25 (Selling) following intervention from the central bank on the domestic market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

20:00 - USD - EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
1.75%
04-May-2022
-
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
-
Bank of England
1.00%
05-May-2022
16-Jun-2022
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
-
Reserve Bank of Australia
1.35%
01-Jan-0001
-
S.Africa Reserve Bank
4.75%
20-May-2022
21-Jul-2022
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
-
Bank of Mauritius
2.25%
03-Jun-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.0289
1.2169
139.90
17.81
R2
1.0236
1.2103
138.83
17.13
R1
1.0139
1.1998
138.12
16.98
PP
1.0086
1.1932
137.05
15.74
S1
0.9989
1.1827
136.34
15.14
S2
0.9936
1.1761
135.27
14.41
S3
0.9839
1.1656
134.56
13.99
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
EUR/USD Outlook- looking bleak throughout Q3-Q4 2022
Chart updated on 05.07.2022

Past

EUR like a Deer in the headlights.

Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.

Current 

Euro  has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002

Forecast

A dip to parity or below is in the cards.

1st target @ 0.9906  78.6% fibo retracement

2nd target @  0.9127  88.6% Fibonacci retracement

Invalidation level @ 0.8221

USD/MUR Outlook One more leg higher before paring some of its gains in Q3-Q4 2022
Chart posted on 05.07.2022

Past

Double zig-zag  upward correction W-X-Y

USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th  July 22

Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018

Current

 BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.

 

Future

Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection

Invalidation Level @ 39.25

EUR/MUR- Bears in control in Q3-Q4 2022
Chart posted on 05.07.2022

Past

After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.

The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.

 

Future

However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week

The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.

Invalidation level @51.05!

 

Markey update on Biz Week by Christie Ng
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.