EUR/USD lost height as French political risk not really out of the woods yet! - 17 May 2017
Emmanuel Macron, the independent candidate of the centrist political Movement En Marche!, became officially the New French President on Sunday after beating out the “far-right” Marine Le Pen, with around 66% of the vote in the second round of the French elections on 7th of May, confirming prior polls insinuation in previous weeks. The general sentiment was full of optimism in Europe, as Macron’s victory has somehow reduced the risk of a Frexit, a real threat for investors across the globe following the unexpected Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s victory in U.S. presidency last year.
EUR/USD- One last leg higher near 1.1050/1.1076 before turning south! - 2 May 2017
The Single currency has maintained the bid tone across the board after French election result of the first round on 23rd of April came in largely as projected in opinion polls. Centrist Emanuel Macron topped in with 23.75% vote, while Far-right Marine Le Pen ended with 21.53%. As France prepares for its second round of presidential voting, both are through to the head-to-head run-off election next Sunday on 7th of May. It now looks like as a done deal for pro-euro, Emmanuel Macron to win and become the next French President, and thus relieving markets from a Frexit referendum. According to recent polls, Macron would easily beat Le Pen by 61% to 39%.
GBP/USD- The Short term outlook suggests for a corrective pull back before the bulls take control again- 2 May 2017
Sterling soared to a six-month peak of $1.2963 on last Friday, after Prime Minister Theresa May called for a national election on 8th of June. Just hours after the announcement on 18th of April, the pound shot up more than 2.7 percent from $1.2513 on Investors’ assumption that a bigger parliament majority for the Conservative Party in the British’s government would strengthen Theresa May’s hands in negotiations to ensure the best possible deal with the European Union, ahead of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union on 29th of March 2019.
USD/ZAR-The calm before the storm! - 14 April 2017
The South African Rand has been smashed early last week to as low as 13.92 against the U.S dollar after the respected Pravin Gordhan was replaced by new Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba that triggered credit downgrades to junk status by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch. In the meantime, Moody’s have placed South Africa’s sovereign credit ratings on review, citing President Jacob Zuma’s decision to fire finance Minister Pravin Gordhan as one reason.
USD/ZAR - Sentiment towards the Rand turned negative after Zuma sacked finance minister Pravin Gordhan - 05 April 2017
South Africa witnessed a political and financial crisis after President Jacob Zuma fired his internationally respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan in a cabinet reshuffle on last Thursday night. Gordhan’s replacement by Home Affairs Minister Malusi Gigaba did little to calm the markets last week, given that Pravin Gordhan was widely seen as a competent Minister of Finance for Africa’s biggest economies.
EUR/USD - Positioning for a possible bullish set-up in the coming weeks/months!! - 14 February 2017
The U.S dollar has been in the spotlight over the last few months on the back of Donald Trump’s surprising victory in the last U.S presidential election on November 8 2016. In the weeks following Donald Trump’s election, investors got overwhelmed about the potential for tax cuts, fiscal stimulus and deregulation in the U.S, bolstering the greenback across the board.
EUR/USD - Triangle breakout last week and Head & Shoulders pattern suggest further decline ahead - 18 October 2016
Last week, the U.S dollar has had its best fortnight for more than a year against a basket of currencies, as signs of continued strength in the U.S economy bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end.
Fed Members left the market with mixed signal on interest rate hike ahead of FOMC meeting next week - 14 September 2016
The U.S dollar started the week on a negative tone against the majors after Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard , in a speech at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on Monday, sent a dovish message on the outlook of a near term interest rate hike in the United States.
Fed officials breathed fire into U.S dollar bulls after keeping U.S interest rate hikes alive for 2016. - 31 August 2016
Over the past few months, the Fed has been hesitant on whether to raise rates this year, keeping investors across the markets on the edge of their seat.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act, but a habit - 23 March 2016
Last week, the U.S. dollar was sold-off massively across the board in the wake of a more dovish than anticipated Fed policy assessment, and a more cautious path to interest rate increase for this year.
Don’t be addicted to money. Work to learn. Don’t work for money. Work for Knowledge - 11 March 2016
The Single currency made a U-turn against the U.S dollar, following the ECB event on Thursday. It initially fell from $1.0970 to a low of $1.0822 after the central bank aggressively unveiled more stimulus package than expected.
Chance favours the prepared mind - 09 March 2016
The euro extended gains from last week low of $1.0822 to as high as $1.1040 post U.S. Non-farm payrolls data on last Friday, as investors were left puzzled by the mixed picture of U.S. employment data which questioned the likelihood of further interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in 2016.
Crowd behaviour results in patterned price movements. If you understand the pattern, you can predict the market - 04 March 2016
The euro bounced off from a three weeks low of $1.0822 to $1.0985 against the U.S dollar on Friday, amid broad USD weakness following the latest string of mixed U.S data on Thursday. The greenback was hurt by poor weekly unemployment claims and services figures, suggesting that the U.S economic recovery might be stalling since the start of the year.
EUR/USD: the falling knife, nearing a temporary bottom - 02 March 2016
The euro’s squeeze against the U.S dollar has continued unabated over 3 consecutive weeks to as low as $1.0830 on Monday , with nobody willing to catch the falling knife. The recent streak of bearish Europe/German fundamentals have increased speculation that President Mario Draghi is likely to take further monetary action at the ECB policy meeting due on 10th March.
Market fool the most number of people at the most unexpected moments - 24 Feb 2016
The Single currency nose-dived this week and hit its lowest level in two weeks at $1.1070 on Thursday after the minutes of the ECB’s January monetary policy meeting indicated its willingness to act in March. In the same vein, ECB’s President Draghi, in a speech early this week, has reiterated readiness to reconsider the monetary policy stance as early as March.
The technical reasons behind the move in EUR/USD over the last two months - 16 Feb 2016
Early in February, the Single currency has picked up steam against the U.S dollar buoyed by rising concerns over the strength of the U.S economy, and the prevailing risk-off mood in the global markets with equity markets tumbling on both side of the Atlantic, together with oil prices falling deeper in the red. All these negative global sentiments have boosted the demand for the safe-haven EUR.
EUR/USD rally, too far too fast - 11 Feb 2016
The Single currency has picked up steam recently against the U.S dollar buoyed by mounting concerns over the strength of the U.S economy, and the prevailing risk-off trade in the global markets, with equity markets sinking on both sides of the Atlantic, and oil prices falling deeper in the red. All these negative global sentiments have boosted the demand for the safe-haven EUR.
EUR/USD shot up as expected, what to expect now? - 10 Feb 2016
Last week, the U.S dollar extended its sell-off against major rivals on speculation that a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in March was fading, following recent weak U.S economic fundamentals and on persistent fear of a global economic slowdown.
EUR/USD Still On Wait And See Mode, But Not For Long!! - 3 Feb 2016
The euro managed to recover ground from Friday’s low to $1.0810 and swung back sharply higher to trade around 1.0910 on Tuesday, as low-yielding common currency was back in demand following fresh sell-off in the oil prices and equities.
On the technical Side, the EURO is currently suggesting a possible bullish triangle formation ahead of FOMC meeting tonight - 27 Jan 2016
The sideways price action in the EUR/USD unfolding on the hourly chart since mid-December 2015 still looks like an Elliott wave pattern called a "contracting triangle".
EUR/USD- a possible rally above $1.1060 still on the cards, AUD/USD in free fall ! - 15 Jan 2016
Risk sentiment turned negative again on Friday amid falling equities and oil prices on mounting worries about the global economy. Safe-havens currencies have benefited the most since this week, with the Yen emerging as the top performer, while the CHF, EUR posted modest gains. On the other hand, the riskier/higher yielding currencies such as the AUD, GBP and ZAR were sold –off into the stock markets turmoil on oil and China woes.